Monday, January 3, 2011

A New Congress, Politics, Challenges and Opportunities

When the new Congress convenes this week the bipartisanship of December’s lame duck session will be a distant memory. President Barack Obama, Republicans and Democrats will enter into a new environment without the “luxury” of a deadline to force all parties to compromise for the good of the country. While there are some from across the political spectrum who believe the deals fashioned were not in the country’s best interest; nonetheless, the deals struck offer a glimmer of hope entering the new congressional season.

Challenges will begin immediately as the incoming House Republicans initiate a series of new rules designed to make the congressional process more transparent and to regularly have the Constitution read to emphasize the fact that the growth and reach of the Federal government has exceeded that which is allowed by the Constitution.

Additionally, Republicans plan to hold oversight hearings to force administration officials to appear before Congress and explain to Members and the public (the hearings will be aired live) how policies were developed and decisions made. The intent is to expose the administration to public scrutiny and prevent it from continuing to pursue its agenda.

The real battle will be over budget. An agreement still needs to be reached on the FY 2011 budget. This debate will be merged with the request to raise the debt ceiling to allow the government to continue to function. Raising the debt ceiling has never been an issue but it will be a major issue for the fiscal conservative wing of the Republican Party.

Republicans scored a major victory during the lame duck session in ensuring a continuing resolution was extended only to March 4. This strengthened their position to pursue budget cuts; however, the ensuing debate will generate enough fireworks to rival those displayed during the annual Fourth of July celebration. Veteran Republicans understand they need to be careful not to challenge the president so aggressively and without the willingness to compromise. There are incoming Republicans freshmen itching for a showdown with the president on the budget and some have arrived with the intent to shut down the government. That approach comes with the same risks realized by the party in its last showdown with a former Democratic President. In the 90s Republicans aggressively challenged former President Bill Clinton on the budget, forced a government shutdown and paid a heavy political price for it. The same could occur this year.

During the lame duck session Obama utilized the bully pulpit of the presidency very effectively to persuade members to pass the Bush era tax cuts, enact the START treaty and repeal “don’t ask, don’t tell”. Obama demonstrated, as former presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan demonstrated after the mid-term elections of 1994 and 1982 respectively, the president is most effective when he rises above the partisan fray and promotes issues and ideas which are more important than the politics surrounding them.

The country is neither as conservative as Tea Partiers would like nor as liberal as the left would prefer. Republicans must realize the election results were not a mandate to change the Obama policies of the last two years. The public mandate is to stop the partisan bickering so both parties can work together to solve our nation’s problems.

Hispanics True Winners of 2010 Census

Hispanics will prove to be the biggest winners when the full impact of the 2010 census is evaluated. Republicans clearly gained leverage when the results were announced as Red states had the largest population growth in the last decade. However, in most states the growth is a direct result of the rise in the Hispanic population.

Hispanics accounted for over 60 percent of the growth in Texas, Florida, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia. Of these states Texas gained four congressional seats and Florida gained two seats. Other states gaining seats included Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington. Even in states that lost seats the Hispanic population grew, for example, Hispanics in Illinois grew 90 percent. Other states losing seats included New York and Ohio (which lost two seats each), Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania which lost one seat each.

Clarissa Martinez De Castro, who works for the National Council of La Raza (a Hispanic civil rights group based in Washington, DC), was quoted in The Washington Post as being concerned with the public’s perception of Hispanics. She said 90 percent of the Hispanics counted were 18 years of age or younger and are United States citizens. As that group matures, they will become a potent political force in the country regardless of their party of choice. Their political affiliation of choice will likely be formed by their parents who voted overwhelmingly Democratic in the November 2010 election.

President Obama is expected to pursue comprehensive immigration reform which will meet firm opposition from Republicans, and some Democrats, in both chambers. House Republicans will address immigration as a jobs issue so as not to appear to be anti-Hispanic. Given the growth of the Hispanic community and its tendency to vote for Democrats, Republicans will be careful to not allow their short-term gains be negated in the future by initiatives perceived as anti-Hispanic. They could shoot themselves in the foot and relinquish their gains before the end of the decade.

Interesting Read

2010 Congress

Austerity is first order for Boehner's installation as House speaker
By Philip Rucker
The Washington Post

John Boehner's leadership style is 'anti-Pelosi'
By Richard E. Cohen
Politico

Two new rules will give Constitution a starring role in GOP-controlled House
By Philip Rucker and Krissah Thompson
The Washington Post

What Republicans have done -- and what they need to do
By Ed Hornick
CNN

Tea-party activists question if rebel political movement has changed for worse
By Amy Gardner
The Washington Post

Spending showdowns will test new Congress
By Charles Babington
The Associated Press

Life of the Party
By Deborah Solomon
The New York Times

One for the Books
By Ronald Brownstein
The National Journal

'The Wussification of America': Parting Shots From Gov. Ed Rendell on the NFL and More
By Jim O'Sullivan
National Journal

The Fix's 11 big questions for 2011
By Aaron Blake
The Washington Post

Incoming Congress girds for warfare
By Jonathan Allen
Politico

Mitch McConnell's iron grip slips
By Glenn Thrush & Manu Raju
Politico

Not such a lame-duck session: What Congress passed, Obama signed in week
CNN

Daughter says Newt Gingrich's 'serious' about 2012
By Jennifer Epstein
Politico

Housing and Community Development

Obama administration steps up monitoring of banks that miss TARP payments
By Zachary A. Goldfarb
The Washington Post

How a mortgage clearinghouse became a villain in the foreclosure mess
By Ariana Eunjung Cha and Steven Mufson
The Washington Post

A Push to Privatize Pennsylvania Liquor Stores
By Katherine Q. Seelye
The New York Times

In California, Few Signs of Transition
By Jennifer Medina
The New York Times

Wisconsin State Workers Fret, as G.O.P. Takes Over
By Monica Davey
The New York Times

Entrepreneurs Ask Santa for Loans, Lower Taxes
By Sarah E. Needleman
The Wall Street Journal

Immigration

Political Battle on Illegal Immigration Shifts to States
By Julia Preston
The New York Times

Immigration Overhaul Is Unlikely Without a Shift in Public Attitudes
By Peter Brown
The Wall Street Journal

Lamar Smith avoids hard line on immigration
By Carrie Budoff Brown
Politico

The GOP's census dilemma: Embrace immigration or gerrymander
By Edward Schumacher-Matos
The Washington Post

2010 Census

Behind Census Figures Showing Boom in Nevada, a Story of Bust
By Adam Nagourney
The New York Times

With census growth, Hispanic groups target redistricting to up political clout
By Krissah Thompson
The Washington Post

Census data realigns congressional districts in key political states
By Sandhya Somashekhar and Aaron Blake
The Washington Post

Census shows slowing US growth, brings GOP gains
By Hope Yen and Charles Babington
The Associated Press

Texas Hispanics set to challenge status quo in reapportionment
By David Mildenberg and Darrell Preston
Bloomberg News

Reapportionment winners and losers
By Aaron Blake
The Washington Post

 
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