Thursday, May 26, 2011

The Road to Reelection Got Smoother for Obama

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels’ decision to forego a White House bid has increased the likelihood President Barack Obama will be reelected for a second term. Recognizing a lot can occur between now and November 2012, it appears the only thing that can truly sink the president’s reelection bid is a down economy.

Each of the remaining high-profile candidates mentioned - New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush - may attract Republican support but will have a difficult time unseating the president if the economy is on the upswing. None of the current candidates or prospective candidates generates excitement among the party faithful. If they have difficulty energizing their own party faithful, it is hard to imagine they will win the hearts and mind of independents and other voters.

The president must take advantage of the mistake made by Republicans who proposed cuts to Medicare without fully vetting the public’s appetite for such reductions. The cuts to Medicare proposed by House Budget Chair Paul Ryan (R-WI) have not been well received and have put Republicans on the defensive. Now is the time for the president to push aggressively for a budget which preserves his priority programs while painting the Republicans as out of step with everyday Americans.

By not offering the recommendations of the deficit commission, the president has allowed himself to enter the partisan fray. He must step back and appear “presidential” as he did during the lame duck session last year. The pressure is not on Obama but on Republicans to come up with a reasonable number for a budget agreement.

Republicans will continue to paint the president as a “big-spending, socialist”; however, they realize how vulnerable they will be in 2012 with an uninspiring candidate, a proposal to radically change Medicare (which even Tea Party faithful do not want to see cut) and possibly being held responsible for the nation defaulting on its obligations if an agreement is not reached in extending the debt limit.

The budget discussions are the foundation for next year’s elections. A bi-partisan budget agreement does not help Republicans next year. Republicans need issues like the economy and Federal spending to be the focus of voter’s attention not the president himself. Focusing on specific issues versus the president will eliminate any risk of appearing overtly or covertly racist. Donald Trump’s unsuccessful attempt to question the president’s academic credentials is a prime example of how attacks on the president can quickly deteriorate.

If a reasonable budget agreement is reached, the president stays above the political fray, the economy shows signs of life and all other things being equal, Obama will be hard to defeat.

NLC Releases Financial Tool Kit for Elected Officials
Link
The National League of Cities released a tool kit for municipal officials to assist families which are “unbanked” and “underbanked” to access traditional financial institutions. The toolkit is part of NLC’s Bank On Cities Campaign which is designed to help local leaders connect low- and moderate-income residents to mainstream financial services to avoid high-cost check-cashers, predatory lenders and other costly alternative financial services.

Interesting Read

Parties are still $1T apart on domestic spending
By David Rogers
Politico

Have Democrats cracked the code for 2012?
By Alexander Burns
Politico

Gang of 5/6 tries to salvage work
By Meredith Shiner
Politico

Will Republicans learn the lesson of NY-26 loss?
By Dan Balz
The Washington Post

The Wish List: Taking a Hard Look at Republicans Not in the Presidential Scrum
By Alex Roarty
National Journal

Stimulus price tag once again lurches higher
By Stephen Dinan
The Washington Times

Stimulus recipients found to be tax cheats
By Stephen Dinan
The Washington Times

The Elephant in the Green Room
By Gabriel Sherman
New York Magazine

If I Take Down Fox, Is All Forgiven?
By Jason Zengerle
New York Magazine

 
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