Friday, September 24, 2010

Drama Surrounds November Election

We at Viewfromdc want to thank Sarah Palin, the Tea Party and the Republican Party for the political theater known as the November election which has engulfed the country. Not even Shakespeare, Twain or Hemingway could have written a better drama.

As we begin to head into the home stretch toward the November election, there are a few clear factors which will shape the outcome this fall:

1. Republicans are currently riding high with momentum. All predictions call for a major victory for Republicans, possibly of historic proportions.

2. The economy is the principal cause for the momentum enjoyed by Republicans. As unemployment continues to hover close to 10 percent, the electorate is increasingly disenchanted with the president’s economic policies.

3. Republicans still have not resolved their internal debate with the Tea Party movement which will have a significant impact on their ability to legislate. While the Tea Party candidate in Utah, Michael Lee, appears to be a shoo-in to win election to the Senate representing that state, other Tea Party candidates still must prove they can win a general election.

4. Democrats need to regroup and develop a post-election strategy which may include a change in leadership on Capitol Hill.

5. While the short-term prognosis for housing and community development programs looks good, there are ominous signs that cuts to vital housing programs could be a part of the future.

Let the Fighting Begin

The Republicans seem to be doing all they can to squander the good fortune the current political environment is affording them. All of the major polls and political experts agree Republicans are poised for major gains at the congressional and state level. However, intraparty fighting is bubbling to the surface as Tea Party activists have turned the primary season upside down by electing candidates of their choice to represent the party in a number of key states.

The latest beneficiary of the Tea Party support was Christine O’Donnell who won the Republican nomination for senator in Delaware. She will run against the Democratic nominee, Chris Coons. O’Donnell’s victory comes at the price of Castle, a popular former governor and most recently the House Representative for the State. He was expected to defeat Coons handily and be a key victory in the Republicans quest to regain the Senate. Now, there is significant doubt that O’Donnell can defeat Coons this fall.

O’Donnell’s victory follows the defeat of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) by Tea Party candidate, Joe Miller, in the Alaska primary. Murkowski is defying party officials and has decided to pursue retaining her seat as a write-in candidate. Even though the party’s leadership at the national level stands behind Miller, a civil war is brewing within the party’s rank and file.

While primary results are typically determined by the most ardent party supporters, the victory by Tea Party candidates in Nevada, Kentucky and Delaware raises a number of concerns for the Republican Party in the fall. First, it is unclear if Tea Party candidates can win in a general election. A win in the primary doesn’t guarantee a win in the fall. With the exception of Utah and possibly Kentucky, there is genuine concern about the ability of Tea Party candidates to connect with “mainstream voters.”

Second, if Republicans do win control of the Senate, how they govern will be interesting to watch. Republicans releases a Pledge to America promising to create jobs, cut taxes, curtail government spending and protect the country. The message sounds good but what does it mean when it is time to govern? Will they govern from a Tea Party platform of reducing Federal spending and reducing taxes which includes facing a showdown with President Obama? This approach will satisfy the conservative base in the party but will it have broad public appeal? The last time Republicans did this was in 1995 and it backfired on them. They received the bulk of the blame and galvanized support for then President Bill Clinton.

There are some Republicans and Tea Party supporters who relish the thought of a government shutdown. If Republicans regain either chamber, they will clearly have a major say in national policy for the next two years. This can be both a blessing and a curse to the party. They will be pressured by Tea Party supporters and their allies, to do all they can to reduce taxes and limit the Federal government’s authority. However, Republicans must be careful. House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) has indicated he believes the Tea Party supporters have the potential to shape policy on the Hill. If so, a repeat of 1995 is possible.

Republicans are becoming so confident they will regain control, they have already promised oversight hearings to embarrass the administration, will seek to defund the health care initiative and some members have openly discussed confronting the president into a showdown resulting in a shutdown of the Federal government. With Republican momentum on the upswing, the party is unanimous in opposing the president’s call to eliminate the tax cuts enacted during the Bush administration for those earning above $250,000 a year.The president wants to make tax cuts for those earning under $250,000 permanent and allow the cuts for those above that figure to expire. To Republicans, it is all or nothing.

It will be interesting to watch the Tea Party approach to governing. Will they adhere to principles over platform or will they adjust to the realities of governing and compromise? There is a tension between the Tea Party's three principles (limited government, fiscal responsibility and free enterprise) and the realities of having to govern. If you are for fiscal responsibility and for tax cuts, then how will you move toward balancing the budget? What will you do about entitlement spending - Social Security and Medicare – which some of the Tea Party activists rely on? If you even try to close a post office, the rural limited government pro-fiscal responsibility folks in the community turn into rabid pro-jobs, cut-somebody-else activists.

From a purely political standpoint, the Tea Party's refusal to offer anything about the specifics is brilliant. It's like Obama's promise of change. The Tea Party wants to get their people elected first. But you can only be a radical outsider once. When the election is over, the coalition will break apart when the hard choices have to be made.

Tea Party Victory Could Help Housing Agenda

The election of Tea Party candidates could enhance efforts to enact legislation granting housing authorities’ greater flexibility in the administration of their programs. While national groups representing housing and community development issues have fared well in the bills up for approval, this year Congress approved cuts to food programs and has frozen future domestic spending. Additionally, the administration is proposing significant cuts to defense spending at levels unheard of in Washington. This does not bode well for increased funding for housing programs. It could; however, spur discussion on deregulation.

The three major public housing groups, Council of Large Public Housing Agencies (CLPHA), Pubic Housing Authorities Directors Association (PHADA) and the National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials (NAHRO), have agreed upon a set of principles which they hope will guide Congress on deregulation efforts. It is unlikely anything of significance will happen so close to the election. This will create a lame duck session in mid to late November; during which it is unlikely much will get done except for a continuing resolution (CR). A CR is a temporary funding measure which keeps the government open for a fix period of time. In this case, the likely scenario is that Congress will pass a CR to keep the government funded until sometime in January.

All indications are a Republican Landslide

Major news organizations have prominently reported that recent polls show the president’s support declining while generic support for Republicans is gaining. This is not atypical for the mid-year election cycle of a first-term president, according to Larry Sabato and Mark Abromovitz of the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball who have written extensively on this subject.

Sabato believes Republicans are in position to gain enough seats to take over the House and come within striking distance of reclaiming the Senate. Stu Rothenberg, a political analyst in Washington, DC, believes Republicans will reclaim both chambers. Charlie Cook, another highly regarded political analyst and author of the Cook Political Report, believes Republicans will fall short of controlling both chambers but he believes they will take the house.

Interesting Read

November Election

Will Republicans Win Back the House in November
By Alfred G. Cuzan
Crystal Ball

Hidden Under Tax-Exempt Cloak, Political Dollars Flow
By Mike McIntyre
The New York Times

In Delaware, Castle Calculates the Write-In Odds
By Michael D. Shear
The New York Times

Tea party gains clout for 2012
By Jonathan Martine & Kenneth P. Vogel
Politico

Is There a Place for Republicans in the Congressional Black Caucus?
By: Cord Jefferson
The Root

2010 is year of GOP women candidates
By Ed Hornick
CNN

Tight Campaign Budgets May Hinder G.O.P. Gains
By Jeff Zeleny
The New York Times

Parties Plot Path to 51 With Senate Field Set
By Kyle Trygstad
CQ-Roll Call

Republicans ride the tea party tiger
By Dan Balz
The Washington Post

Tea Partiers Have Potential to Drive Debate on Capitol Hill, Boehner Says
Congressional Quarterly

For G.O.P., Tea Party Wields a Double-Edged Sword
By Kate Zernike
The New York Times

Fed Up With Politics, and Politicians, in Illinois
By Monica Davey
The New York Times

In Arizona, Corn With Politics on the Side
By Marc Lacey
The New York Times

Unlikely battleground of Wisconsin reflects Democrats' vulnerability in midterm elections

By Karen Tumulty
The Washington Post

Final act begins in 2010 election
By Mark Preston
CNN Senior Political Editor

State Gains Would Give Redistricting Edge to G.O.P.
By Michael Cooper
The New York Times

To keep the 2010 midterms from repeating 1994, Democrats can learn from Reagan
By Jim Kessler
The Washington Post

Key Players

Can John Boehner and Barack Obama get along?
By Jake Sherman & John Bresnahan
Politico

Is John Boehner ready for prime time?
By Jonathan Allen& Jake Sherman
Politico

Tea party's Joe Miller: What he plans if Alaska sends him to Washington
By Amy Gardner and Philip Rucker
The Washington Post

Record number of Indian Americans vie for U.S. House
By Fredreka Schouten
USA TODAY

Can Christine O'Donnell win?
By Chris Cillizza
Washington Post

Rebel Jim DeMint sparks GOP Senate civil war
By Manu Raju
Politico

The Great Connecticut-Country-Club Crackup
By Matt Bai
The New York Times

The Wish for a Conservative Dream Duo
By Mark Leibovich
The New York Times

John McCain embraces the GOP's right
By Meredith Shiner
Politico

Meet the New Boss
By Howard Kurtz
The Washington Post

Mormons have mixed views of Beck's rise
By Felicia Sonmez
The Washington Post

10 Tea Party Candidates to Watch
By Kasie Hunt
Politico
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42465.html

2012 Election

The next Tea Party targets
By Aaron Blake
The Washington Post

Housing and Community Development

Housing Woes Bring a New Cry: Let the Market Fall
By David Streitfeld
The New York Times

How Census gets it wrong on poverty
By Bruce D. Meyer and James X. Sullivan
CNN

Democrats pivot on immigration
By Carrie Budoff Brown
Politico

Price: We'll defund health reform
By Simmi Aujla
Politico

Polarization of Supreme Court Is Reflected in Justices’ Clerks
By Adam Liptak
The New York Times

Federal spending rises a record 16%
By Michael A. Fletcher and Carol Morello
The Washington Post

Now on Democrats' agenda: Budget cuts
By Shailagh Murray
The Washington Post

Illegal immigrant population in U.S. drops, report says
By Tara Bahrampour
The Washington Post

Bankruptcy on horizon for Pennsylvania capital
By Michael A. Fletcher
The Washington Post





0 comments:

 
Design by Wordpress Theme | Bloggerized by Free Blogger Templates | JCPenney Coupons