9:55 AM
Julio Barreto
The evolving political situation may create an opportunity for Republicans to increase their numbers in the Senate and state houses putting them in position to control of redistricting efforts. This could result in fewer elected officials available to support affordable housing programs.
The consensus among experts who analyze elections is that there are approximately a dozen Senate races at play this November. If Republicans run the table, they will have a majority in the Senate and will be in a stronger position to exert their will on the legislative process. If victorious, they will attempt to derail any legislative initiative proposed by the president and will aggressively seek initiatives which will reduce government spending. The likely scenario will result in Republicans narrowing their numbers in the Senate. It is too early to predict the margin of difference between the two parties this fall but most prognosticators are predicting Republicans have a good chance of picking up seven seats this fall. That will give Democrats a 52 to 48 advantage over the Republicans.
Complicating matter for Democrats is that they are getting hammered from every constituency within their tent. The combination of a struggling economy and concerns about the long-term debt of the nation is causing Democrats to lose independent voters. These voters typically consist of working class individuals with little to no college education who tend to be conservative on fiscal, cultural and foreign policy issues. Liberals are upset the president has not been more aggressive in pursuing a public option in health and ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. African-Americans are upset that not enough stimulus dollars has filtered into their communities to help reduce their high unemployment rates. Gays want the president to demonstrate stronger support for gay marriage. Hispanics want immigration reform and believe failure by the Democrats to address this issue will result in less support within the Latino community.
For supporters of federally-funded housing programs, the fewer Democrats elected to Congress, the harder to gain support for additional funding for affordable housing programs. (Democrats tend to be more supportive of providing Federal funding for housing programs.) In the Senate, every Senator with the exception of Evan Bayh of Indiana and Claire McCaskill of Missouri have scored 100 percent on issues related to affordable housing according to the National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials (NAHRO).
With a few exceptions, a majority of the Senate seats with competitive races are held by senators with perfect scores according to NAHRO. They are Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln); Colorado (Michael Bennet); Illinois (Roland Burris); Nevada (Majority Leader Harry Reid); and, Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter). In Connecticut (Chris Dodd) and North Dakota (Byron Dorgan), Democrats are trying to hold seats vacated by retiring members who each scored 100 on NAHRO’s score card.
In Delaware, it was widely assumed that Beau Biden, current Attorney General for the State of Delaware and son of Vice President Joe Biden, would “inherit” his father’s seat after the elder Biden’s selection as President Obama’s running mate. However, his decision to remain in his current position leaves the race wide open for the state’s House Representative Mike Castle (R) to win. Castle is a moderate Republican who has been a strong supporter of affordable housing programs. He has voted 83 percent of the time in NAHRO’s assessment of his voting record in support of affordable housing programs.
In Indiana, Evan Bayh (83%) could face a tough reelection race as former House Representative Dan Coats is making waves to run for that seat. In Missouri, long-time housing supporter Kit Bond (67%) is retiring which is unfortunate for housing advocates. Bond has oftentimes been the lone Republican offering vocal support for Federal housing programs and had an outstanding working relationship with his colleague on the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies, Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD).
In Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Ohio both parties are battling over seats being vacated by Republicans. Of the aforementioned races, Democrats are expected to lose in Arkansas, Delaware, Nevada, and North Dakota. Democrats are also at risk of losing in Colorado, Illinois and Pennsylvania. It is only February and the elections are nine months away, an eternity in politics. However, if the election were held today, Democrats would probably lose seven seats. Of the seven new Republican senators under this scenario, only one, Castle, can be expected to be supportive of Federally-funded affordable housing programs.
According to Charlie Cook of The Cook Political Report, the road may be tougher for Democrats in 2012 and 2014 when they have a total of 43 seats to defend. According to Cook it is not unrealistic to expect a Republican take over of the Senate in the near future.
Governors Races will Impact Redistricting
While much attention is being paid to the impact Election Day will have in Congress races to control governor seats is flying under the radar. Controlling the state houses will impact who redraws congressional lines when redistricting decisions are made. It is not unreasonable to expect the gains reaped in Congress by Republicans will filter into the races for governor and control of state legislative bodies. Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, is predicting Republicans will gain six governorships in 2010 with the potential to gain three more.
According to Stateside Associates there will be 46 states holding legislative elections with Democrats currently holding 61 out of 99 chambers. Controlling state government places the controlling party in position to influence redistricting decisions. New lines will be drawn after the 2010 census is completed. With the exception of eight states, the governor is directly involved in the redistricting process. Governors either have veto power over final redistricting plans or they appoint the commissions designed to redraw congressional lines.
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The consensus among experts who analyze elections is that there are approximately a dozen Senate races at play this November. If Republicans run the table, they will have a majority in the Senate and will be in a stronger position to exert their will on the legislative process. If victorious, they will attempt to derail any legislative initiative proposed by the president and will aggressively seek initiatives which will reduce government spending. The likely scenario will result in Republicans narrowing their numbers in the Senate. It is too early to predict the margin of difference between the two parties this fall but most prognosticators are predicting Republicans have a good chance of picking up seven seats this fall. That will give Democrats a 52 to 48 advantage over the Republicans.
Complicating matter for Democrats is that they are getting hammered from every constituency within their tent. The combination of a struggling economy and concerns about the long-term debt of the nation is causing Democrats to lose independent voters. These voters typically consist of working class individuals with little to no college education who tend to be conservative on fiscal, cultural and foreign policy issues. Liberals are upset the president has not been more aggressive in pursuing a public option in health and ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. African-Americans are upset that not enough stimulus dollars has filtered into their communities to help reduce their high unemployment rates. Gays want the president to demonstrate stronger support for gay marriage. Hispanics want immigration reform and believe failure by the Democrats to address this issue will result in less support within the Latino community.
For supporters of federally-funded housing programs, the fewer Democrats elected to Congress, the harder to gain support for additional funding for affordable housing programs. (Democrats tend to be more supportive of providing Federal funding for housing programs.) In the Senate, every Senator with the exception of Evan Bayh of Indiana and Claire McCaskill of Missouri have scored 100 percent on issues related to affordable housing according to the National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials (NAHRO).
With a few exceptions, a majority of the Senate seats with competitive races are held by senators with perfect scores according to NAHRO. They are Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln); Colorado (Michael Bennet); Illinois (Roland Burris); Nevada (Majority Leader Harry Reid); and, Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter). In Connecticut (Chris Dodd) and North Dakota (Byron Dorgan), Democrats are trying to hold seats vacated by retiring members who each scored 100 on NAHRO’s score card.
In Delaware, it was widely assumed that Beau Biden, current Attorney General for the State of Delaware and son of Vice President Joe Biden, would “inherit” his father’s seat after the elder Biden’s selection as President Obama’s running mate. However, his decision to remain in his current position leaves the race wide open for the state’s House Representative Mike Castle (R) to win. Castle is a moderate Republican who has been a strong supporter of affordable housing programs. He has voted 83 percent of the time in NAHRO’s assessment of his voting record in support of affordable housing programs.
In Indiana, Evan Bayh (83%) could face a tough reelection race as former House Representative Dan Coats is making waves to run for that seat. In Missouri, long-time housing supporter Kit Bond (67%) is retiring which is unfortunate for housing advocates. Bond has oftentimes been the lone Republican offering vocal support for Federal housing programs and had an outstanding working relationship with his colleague on the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies, Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD).
In Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Ohio both parties are battling over seats being vacated by Republicans. Of the aforementioned races, Democrats are expected to lose in Arkansas, Delaware, Nevada, and North Dakota. Democrats are also at risk of losing in Colorado, Illinois and Pennsylvania. It is only February and the elections are nine months away, an eternity in politics. However, if the election were held today, Democrats would probably lose seven seats. Of the seven new Republican senators under this scenario, only one, Castle, can be expected to be supportive of Federally-funded affordable housing programs.
According to Charlie Cook of The Cook Political Report, the road may be tougher for Democrats in 2012 and 2014 when they have a total of 43 seats to defend. According to Cook it is not unrealistic to expect a Republican take over of the Senate in the near future.
Governors Races will Impact Redistricting
While much attention is being paid to the impact Election Day will have in Congress races to control governor seats is flying under the radar. Controlling the state houses will impact who redraws congressional lines when redistricting decisions are made. It is not unreasonable to expect the gains reaped in Congress by Republicans will filter into the races for governor and control of state legislative bodies. Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, is predicting Republicans will gain six governorships in 2010 with the potential to gain three more.
According to Stateside Associates there will be 46 states holding legislative elections with Democrats currently holding 61 out of 99 chambers. Controlling state government places the controlling party in position to influence redistricting decisions. New lines will be drawn after the 2010 census is completed. With the exception of eight states, the governor is directly involved in the redistricting process. Governors either have veto power over final redistricting plans or they appoint the commissions designed to redraw congressional lines.
Interesting Read
Credit unions seek larger share of business loans
By Binyamin Appelbaum
The Washington Post
Mortgage giants GSEs in limbo: In housing, a dangerous policy vacuum grows
Washington Post Editorial
Why are liberals so condescending to conservatives?
By Gerard Alexander
The Washington Post
Obama, GOP sparring over job creation proposals
By Philip Elliott
Associated Press
After Escaping Jobless Woes, Trauma May Linger
By Michael Luo
The New York Times
G.O.P. Group to Promote Conservative Ideas
By Jackie Calmes
The New York Times
