10:28 AM
Julio Barreto
Today’s primaries in Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Kentucky and Oregon will provide a sneak peak into the level of anger directed towards incumbents by voters. Today’s results could single Federal funding for affordable housing will be more difficult to achieve in the next Congress if more conservative candidates are elected.
The primary losses of Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV) and Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) to more conservative opponents reflects an anti-incumbent trend expressed in concern over too much Federal spending. Both Mollohan and Bennett were members of their chamber’s appropriations committee which placed them in prime position to ensure Federal resources were directed to their states. Each of their opponents are calling for less Federal spending.
The primary loss of Mollohan to a blue dog (conservative) Democrat, Mike Olivero, is a blow to housing advocates who could count on him as a reliable vote in support of affordable housing in his seat on the Appropriations Committee. Mollohan had a 100 percent score on affordable housing issues according to the voting report card issued by the National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials (NAHRO) over the last two years.
The losses suffered by Mollohan and Bennett (the remaining candidates in the Utah race must face-off in a run off) have raised concern among incumbents. These losses, combined with the possible losses of other incumbents in the today’s primaries, sent a message to members of both parties not to take anything for granted. These losses also illustrate various elements of both parties are not happy. Bennett was considered not conservative enough while Mollohan was punished, in part, by his vote for health care reform. Mollohan has also been hounded by allegations of ethics issues. Mollohan was considered unbeatable since his father held the seat for seven terms prior to his own election.
In Arkansas, the liberal wing of the Democratic Party is upset with the incumbent, Blanche Lincoln’s, opposition to a public option in the health care reform bill. They have rallied around her challenger, Lt. Governor Bill Halter. Frustrated with the failure to include a public option in the final bill, they want to send a message of dissatisfaction to the party by attacking Lincoln.
In Pennsylvania, incumbent Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA) is not expected to win the Democratic nomination which would end his tenure in Congress. He was first elected as a Republican to the Senate in 1980. He switched parties in 2009 because he felt the party’s shift the right was too extreme for him. He has not been fully embraced by Pennsylvania Democrats and has been challenged by Rep. Joe Sestak. Sestak is expected to win. Both Lincoln and Specter have perfect scores in support of affordable housing according to NAHRO.
If Specter and Lincoln lose, the party’s nominees are expected to cast similar votes if elected to the Senate. However, even if Halter and Sestak win their party’s nomination, their victory in November is still in doubt. The Republican nominee in Pennsylvania, former Congressman Pat Toomey, is a formidable opponent. Because of the anti-incumbent tone of the electorate, Republicans have an excellent chance to capture the Senate seat in Arkansas. There are five individuals seeking the Republican nomination in Arkansas with Congressman John Boozman considered the favorite to win. Today’s primary will determine the Republican nominee as well.
Here are four things to look for in the final results Tuesday evening:
1. Incumbency: This is not a good year to be an incumbent. You are either going to lose or your standing will be weakened by a furious electorate. If a large number of incumbents lose or win by small margins, Congress will be reluctant to act on controversial legislation such as immigration reform before the election. Members will want to spend as much time as possible campaigning to avoid defeat in November.
2. Establishment influence: Each party is poised to see their “anointed” nominee lose today. In Pennsylvania, Specter enjoyed strong backing from the Democratic Party while Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s (KY) hand-picked candidate, Trey Grayson, could lose as well. Both parties will need to reevaluate their strategies this fall in the wake of these expected losses.
3. Tea Party: The defeat of Bill Bennett in Utah was a clear victory for the Tea Party movement. It singled that they can be major players in certain races. They have now turned their attention to Kentucky where Rand Paul is challenging Grayson for the U.S. Senate nomination in Kentucky. Paul is the son of Texas Representative Ron Paul. Paul will leading the race heading into today’s showdown; however, the Tea Party-backed candidate’s ability to win a general election will be tested in November.
4. Unions/liberals: Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln has drawn the ire of unions and liberals for her vote against the health care legislation. Each group has funneled an enormous amount of money in support of her challenger Bill Halter. Lincoln is expected to be the top voter among the Democratic candidates (businessman D.C. Morrison is the third candidate) but will not secure more than 50 percent of the votes to avoid a run-off. Unions/Liberals have also threatened conservative Democrats most notably in North Carolina for their vote against health care reform. If they can defeat Lincoln, they will be the Democrats’ version of the Tea Party and seek to push Democratic candidates to the left. This strategy might actually help Lincoln in a state that is moderate at best. If Halter wins, there is a huge risk he will be unelectable in the fall.
Tuesday’s primaries will provide another scene to the landscape called the November election. Both parties will sit on pins and needles waiting for the outcomes to be announced in the early evening.
Report Links Financial Stability Early in Life to Future Economic Prospects
A new report released by the Corporation for Enterprise Development (CFED) reviewed data which showed that assets and financial stability have a powerful impact on the future economic prospects of children.
The report, Assets & Opportunity Special Report: The Financial Security of Households with Children, reviewed data on the net worth and asset poverty of households with children, and finds that many families are on financially shaky ground. The report stated that millions of children are growing up in families facing economic hardship. Savings and asset ownership can provide a cushion to help get families through periods of unemployment, a medical emergency or other financial shocks.
Key findings include:
• Households with children are more vulnerable to economic shocks than those without children: households with children own only 70 cents for every $1 in wealth held by all households.
• Wealth gaps by race, income and gender persist across all households, but are most significant for households with children.
• While net worth grew for most households in the years leading up to the recession, African American households and poor households with children fell further behind.
CFED called on policymakers to adopt policies in four broad areas to address the lack of financial assets and incomes of families:
1. Boost the income of families and children by expanding or enacting Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC) at all levels of government; enacting the Child Tax Credit; and increasing minimum wage and unemployment insurance.
2. Encourage and incenting savings by creating Child Savings Accounts (CSA) and expanding Individual Development Accounts (IDA).
3. Eliminate disincentives to save by changing policies which require savings limits in order to be eligible for assistance.
4. Promote safe and affordable financial services by outlawing or better regulating payday lending practices and providing user-friendly financial services.
CFED is a national nonprofit based in Washington, DC dedicated to expanding economic opportunity for low-income families and communities. CFED uses a “think-do-invest” approach grounded in community practice, public policy and private markets.
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The primary losses of Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV) and Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) to more conservative opponents reflects an anti-incumbent trend expressed in concern over too much Federal spending. Both Mollohan and Bennett were members of their chamber’s appropriations committee which placed them in prime position to ensure Federal resources were directed to their states. Each of their opponents are calling for less Federal spending.
The primary loss of Mollohan to a blue dog (conservative) Democrat, Mike Olivero, is a blow to housing advocates who could count on him as a reliable vote in support of affordable housing in his seat on the Appropriations Committee. Mollohan had a 100 percent score on affordable housing issues according to the voting report card issued by the National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials (NAHRO) over the last two years.
The losses suffered by Mollohan and Bennett (the remaining candidates in the Utah race must face-off in a run off) have raised concern among incumbents. These losses, combined with the possible losses of other incumbents in the today’s primaries, sent a message to members of both parties not to take anything for granted. These losses also illustrate various elements of both parties are not happy. Bennett was considered not conservative enough while Mollohan was punished, in part, by his vote for health care reform. Mollohan has also been hounded by allegations of ethics issues. Mollohan was considered unbeatable since his father held the seat for seven terms prior to his own election.
In Arkansas, the liberal wing of the Democratic Party is upset with the incumbent, Blanche Lincoln’s, opposition to a public option in the health care reform bill. They have rallied around her challenger, Lt. Governor Bill Halter. Frustrated with the failure to include a public option in the final bill, they want to send a message of dissatisfaction to the party by attacking Lincoln.
In Pennsylvania, incumbent Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA) is not expected to win the Democratic nomination which would end his tenure in Congress. He was first elected as a Republican to the Senate in 1980. He switched parties in 2009 because he felt the party’s shift the right was too extreme for him. He has not been fully embraced by Pennsylvania Democrats and has been challenged by Rep. Joe Sestak. Sestak is expected to win. Both Lincoln and Specter have perfect scores in support of affordable housing according to NAHRO.
If Specter and Lincoln lose, the party’s nominees are expected to cast similar votes if elected to the Senate. However, even if Halter and Sestak win their party’s nomination, their victory in November is still in doubt. The Republican nominee in Pennsylvania, former Congressman Pat Toomey, is a formidable opponent. Because of the anti-incumbent tone of the electorate, Republicans have an excellent chance to capture the Senate seat in Arkansas. There are five individuals seeking the Republican nomination in Arkansas with Congressman John Boozman considered the favorite to win. Today’s primary will determine the Republican nominee as well.
Here are four things to look for in the final results Tuesday evening:
1. Incumbency: This is not a good year to be an incumbent. You are either going to lose or your standing will be weakened by a furious electorate. If a large number of incumbents lose or win by small margins, Congress will be reluctant to act on controversial legislation such as immigration reform before the election. Members will want to spend as much time as possible campaigning to avoid defeat in November.
2. Establishment influence: Each party is poised to see their “anointed” nominee lose today. In Pennsylvania, Specter enjoyed strong backing from the Democratic Party while Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s (KY) hand-picked candidate, Trey Grayson, could lose as well. Both parties will need to reevaluate their strategies this fall in the wake of these expected losses.
3. Tea Party: The defeat of Bill Bennett in Utah was a clear victory for the Tea Party movement. It singled that they can be major players in certain races. They have now turned their attention to Kentucky where Rand Paul is challenging Grayson for the U.S. Senate nomination in Kentucky. Paul is the son of Texas Representative Ron Paul. Paul will leading the race heading into today’s showdown; however, the Tea Party-backed candidate’s ability to win a general election will be tested in November.
4. Unions/liberals: Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln has drawn the ire of unions and liberals for her vote against the health care legislation. Each group has funneled an enormous amount of money in support of her challenger Bill Halter. Lincoln is expected to be the top voter among the Democratic candidates (businessman D.C. Morrison is the third candidate) but will not secure more than 50 percent of the votes to avoid a run-off. Unions/Liberals have also threatened conservative Democrats most notably in North Carolina for their vote against health care reform. If they can defeat Lincoln, they will be the Democrats’ version of the Tea Party and seek to push Democratic candidates to the left. This strategy might actually help Lincoln in a state that is moderate at best. If Halter wins, there is a huge risk he will be unelectable in the fall.
Tuesday’s primaries will provide another scene to the landscape called the November election. Both parties will sit on pins and needles waiting for the outcomes to be announced in the early evening.
Report Links Financial Stability Early in Life to Future Economic Prospects
A new report released by the Corporation for Enterprise Development (CFED) reviewed data which showed that assets and financial stability have a powerful impact on the future economic prospects of children.
The report, Assets & Opportunity Special Report: The Financial Security of Households with Children, reviewed data on the net worth and asset poverty of households with children, and finds that many families are on financially shaky ground. The report stated that millions of children are growing up in families facing economic hardship. Savings and asset ownership can provide a cushion to help get families through periods of unemployment, a medical emergency or other financial shocks.
Key findings include:
• Households with children are more vulnerable to economic shocks than those without children: households with children own only 70 cents for every $1 in wealth held by all households.
• Wealth gaps by race, income and gender persist across all households, but are most significant for households with children.
• While net worth grew for most households in the years leading up to the recession, African American households and poor households with children fell further behind.
CFED called on policymakers to adopt policies in four broad areas to address the lack of financial assets and incomes of families:
1. Boost the income of families and children by expanding or enacting Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC) at all levels of government; enacting the Child Tax Credit; and increasing minimum wage and unemployment insurance.
2. Encourage and incenting savings by creating Child Savings Accounts (CSA) and expanding Individual Development Accounts (IDA).
3. Eliminate disincentives to save by changing policies which require savings limits in order to be eligible for assistance.
4. Promote safe and affordable financial services by outlawing or better regulating payday lending practices and providing user-friendly financial services.
CFED is a national nonprofit based in Washington, DC dedicated to expanding economic opportunity for low-income families and communities. CFED uses a “think-do-invest” approach grounded in community practice, public policy and private markets.
Interesting Read
Primaries may help foreshadow November elections
By Dan Balz
The Washington Post
Tuesday's primaries could provide early answers for election year
By Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post
Voters may be fed up with congressional pork
By Sean Lengell
The Washington Times
In Pa., 'Surging Sestak' tries to close the deal
By Paul Kane
The Washington Post
Heated campaign to fill Murtha's seat
By Sandhya Somashekhar
The Washington Post
In Ky., the Establishment vs. the Quasi-Outsider
By Perry Bacon Jr.
The Washington Post
To catch Blanche Lincoln, challenger plans 20 stops in 25 hours
By Peter Slevin
The Washington Post
Palin calls Fiorina and other Republican candidates 'mama grizzlies'
By Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post
Bob Schieffer: White House bracing for Specter loss
By Greg Sargent
The Washington Post
TARP becomes prime target for senators facing reelection battles
By Shailagh Murray
The Washington Post
In Backing Insurgents, Republicans Face November Risks
By Nate Silver
The Washington Post
Louisiana governor Jindal takes active role in dealing with spill
By David A. Fahrenthold
The Washington Post
Conservative thinkers tout three innovative and controversial proposals
By Perry Bacon, Jr.
The Washington Post
House Democrat calls out Republicans for defying their party on earmark ban
By Carol D. Leonnig
The Washington Post
2020 Census will have an online option
By Ed O’Keefe
The Washington Post
