2:27 PM
Julio Barreto
During last week’s post we listed a series of issues which will affect the November election and provided an outline of action steps we believe the affordable housing community must undertake to prepare itself for the future. This week we look at the traditional mid-term losses faced by a first-term president and discuss its implications for affordable housing advocates.
Barack Obama’s first year and a half in office has not been without drama:
1. He inherited one of the most challenging economic periods of our country’s history;
2. Nominated the first Hispanic to the Supreme Court;
3. Decided to expand our presence in Afghanistan;
4. Saw the seat of the late Senator Ted Kennedy fall to a Republican resulting in Democrats losing their filibuster-proof majority in the Senate;
5. After a bruising and time-consuming fight was able to pass health care reform which was tried unsuccessfully by previous president’s for 100 years;
6. Has endured a highly vocal and confrontational opposition to his efforts by “Tea Party” activists;
7. Dissatisfaction by his liberal Democratic base; and,
8. He faced unanimous opposition by the Republican Party on health care and other initiatives.
Now he must lead his party through the mid-term election. Historically, the party of the incumbent president loses seats in the ensuring mid-term election. The fundamental question facing Obama is not whether Democrats lose seats, but how many. Since the health care debate heated up, the president’s popularity has dipped below 50 percent which could portend trouble for Democrats this fall.
Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia’s Center on Politics is predicting Republicans will gain seven seats in the Senate, 27 in the House of Representatives and will likely win at least seven gubernatorial races. The expected gains in the House and Senate will not give Republicans majority status in Congress but will give them greater leverage and influence on legislative matters and Supreme Court appointments.
Alfred Cuzan, writing for the Center on Politics Crystal Ball, correlates the president’s approval rating against the number of seats his party is expected to lose in the fall election. He reviewed the approval ratings of past Presidents Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter entering their midterm election and posed the question: is Obama another Reagan or Carter? His analysis suggests the more unpopular the president the more likely his party will lose seats in the next fall election. Cuzan determined his model indicates Obama’s approval rating will continue to decline which could be a bad omen for Democrats this fall. However, Cuzan acknowledged that Reagan benefited from a recovering economy after suffering loses in his midterm election while Carter endured a struggling economy which included high interest rates and high unemployment.
So where does this leave Obama and Democrats? Right now, on the defensive. There are so many factors which come to play this summer leading into the fall. Here are three to watch closely:
1. The economy. The administration indicated the most recent jobs numbers reflect an economy on the rebound. Republicans disagree. A recovering economy will help the president and Democrats this fall.
2. Immigration. The administration is under tremendous pressure by Hispanics to enact comprehensive immigration reform which includes a path to citizenship for undocumented workers. Many Republicans, including Tea Party activists, are adamantly opposed to what they call “amnesty”. This is an issue which will motivate the bases of both parties, although Republicans can damage themselves long-term with Hispanic voters if they are viewed as “hostile” towards immigrants.
3. The Supreme Court nomination process. This can invigorate the bases of both parties. Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens’ decision to retire creates another opportunity for the president to nominate a replacement. Stevens’ timing so close to the contentious health care has the potential to be just as volatile. Supreme Court Justices serve for life and Republicans are not eager to allow Obama to appoint a “liberal” to the bench.
In the House races, many of the seats gained by Democrats in the last two election cycles were in districts which leaned Republican. In 40 of those districts, voters voted for President George W. Bush in 2004 and half of the voters in those districts voted for John McCain in 2008. It is not unreasonable to assume a majority of those districts will return into the hands of the Republican candidate.
The Senate is a bit more unpredictable. No one would have predicted the seat of the late Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy would fall into the hands of a Republican. Delaware was considered a safe Democratic seat until the vice president’s son, Beau Biden, decided not to run for office. Now it appears a Republican, the moderate Mike Castle, will win that seat. The fall elections are so unpredictable, there are some experts suggesting the solidly Democratic State of California may elect one of Senator Barbara Boxer’s (D) Republican challengers to replace her.
While a great deal of attention is focused on the congressional elections, the gubernatorial races could significantly shape Congress for the future. According to the Center for Politics, there are 23 states with no incumbents running for governor, including the big states of California, New York, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. New York and Pennsylvania are expected to lose seats after the Census Bureau has completed its tally of the 2010 Census. Congressional maps will be redrawn as a result of the census results and the party in power will control that process. Historically, redistricting has been a vehicle for the party in power to protect its members while punishing the opposing party.
What should affordable housing advocates do next? Here are our suggestions:
1. Learn from the Tea Party. Grassroots organizing and education are critical to ensure your concerns are reflected by candidates.
2. Make sure you educate all of your constituents, workers, etc., on the importance of sending back in Census forms and what it means to your community. (We will discuss the Census in greater detail in a future posting.)
3. Although you likely cannot tell others how to vote, make sure to tell them to vote and why it is important.
4. Solidify your relationships now with businesses, churches, non-profits and other groups and see what common ground exists politically.
5. As you are discussing issues, be sure to listen. Ask residents and other groups what is important to them. You may be surprised at what you learn.
6. Rehearse your elevator speech now. Be prepared to tell both elected officials and candidates who you are and why your concerns matter. Let them know that you are not just a housing advocate, but a person that represents a block of voters, and tell them how many.
7. Remember, elected officials, for all of their talk of service, are most interested in themselves. That’s why they are putting up with all of the headaches of running for office. Therefore, find common ground. If you went to the same college, use that to your advantage. If their play children play soccer and your do too, find an artful way to mention soccer when you talk to them.
8. Be fair in your criticism and praise of your elected official. Research until you find at least one vote on which the incumbent did something right, and thank them for it.
9. Treat Republicans like Democrats and vice versa. Advocates simply can’t assume they will receive support or opposition from their congressional representative.
10. There is a fine line between being persistent and a pain in the rear. Strike the right balance between being a pest and being a professional.
11. Know your issues well enough so that you can express your concerns in a way that is meaningful to the incumbent.
12. Take the time to educate candidates on the work you are doing in the community. If the incumbent is never with you on any issues, try as hard as you can to get someone else elected.
13. Remember all politics is local. National member groups, by their nature, do not have the focus to assist much with the issues that may be in play in your district or state. Therefore, strike a careful balance between your local concerns and support of national issues.
Next week’s posting will focus on the economy.
Interesting Read
Housing and Community Development
Economy has shifted Americans' attitudes about homeownership and money
By Sadie Dingfelder
Special to the Washington Post
Renting isn't reckless if you're not ready for homeownership
By Michelle Singletary
The Washington Post
Foreclosures create opportunities in Prince George's, Md.
By Ovetta Wiggins
The Washington Post
Thousands May Lose Rental Vouchers
By Cara Buckley
New York Times
The Invisible Underclass
By Eugene Robinson
The Washington Post
Faith in homeownership drops, Fannie Mae poll shows
By Renae Merle
The Washington Post
Baltimore takes a holistic approach to unhealthy housing
By Eliza Barclay
The Washington Post
Obama to meet at the White House with black church leaders
By Hamil R. Harris and Krissah Thompson
The Washington Post
Politics
A census sign that the Tea Party is less than it seems
By Dana Milbank
The Washington Post
Republicans focus efforts on November, say 2012 can wait
By Dan Balz
The Washington Post
Of Swans and Spoilers
Heading toward Election Day, Democrats won't be getting much help on the jobs front.
By Charlie Cook
The National Journal
Hispanics skeptical that Obama, Democrats will deliver immigration overhaul
By Sandhya Somashekar
The Washington Post
Anger over health-care reform spurs rise in threats against Congress members
By Sari Horwitz and Ben Pershing
The Washington Post
Five ways Michael Steele could come back
By Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post
Barack Obama’s first year and a half in office has not been without drama:
1. He inherited one of the most challenging economic periods of our country’s history;
2. Nominated the first Hispanic to the Supreme Court;
3. Decided to expand our presence in Afghanistan;
4. Saw the seat of the late Senator Ted Kennedy fall to a Republican resulting in Democrats losing their filibuster-proof majority in the Senate;
5. After a bruising and time-consuming fight was able to pass health care reform which was tried unsuccessfully by previous president’s for 100 years;
6. Has endured a highly vocal and confrontational opposition to his efforts by “Tea Party” activists;
7. Dissatisfaction by his liberal Democratic base; and,
8. He faced unanimous opposition by the Republican Party on health care and other initiatives.
Now he must lead his party through the mid-term election. Historically, the party of the incumbent president loses seats in the ensuring mid-term election. The fundamental question facing Obama is not whether Democrats lose seats, but how many. Since the health care debate heated up, the president’s popularity has dipped below 50 percent which could portend trouble for Democrats this fall.
Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia’s Center on Politics is predicting Republicans will gain seven seats in the Senate, 27 in the House of Representatives and will likely win at least seven gubernatorial races. The expected gains in the House and Senate will not give Republicans majority status in Congress but will give them greater leverage and influence on legislative matters and Supreme Court appointments.
Alfred Cuzan, writing for the Center on Politics Crystal Ball, correlates the president’s approval rating against the number of seats his party is expected to lose in the fall election. He reviewed the approval ratings of past Presidents Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter entering their midterm election and posed the question: is Obama another Reagan or Carter? His analysis suggests the more unpopular the president the more likely his party will lose seats in the next fall election. Cuzan determined his model indicates Obama’s approval rating will continue to decline which could be a bad omen for Democrats this fall. However, Cuzan acknowledged that Reagan benefited from a recovering economy after suffering loses in his midterm election while Carter endured a struggling economy which included high interest rates and high unemployment.
So where does this leave Obama and Democrats? Right now, on the defensive. There are so many factors which come to play this summer leading into the fall. Here are three to watch closely:
1. The economy. The administration indicated the most recent jobs numbers reflect an economy on the rebound. Republicans disagree. A recovering economy will help the president and Democrats this fall.
2. Immigration. The administration is under tremendous pressure by Hispanics to enact comprehensive immigration reform which includes a path to citizenship for undocumented workers. Many Republicans, including Tea Party activists, are adamantly opposed to what they call “amnesty”. This is an issue which will motivate the bases of both parties, although Republicans can damage themselves long-term with Hispanic voters if they are viewed as “hostile” towards immigrants.
3. The Supreme Court nomination process. This can invigorate the bases of both parties. Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens’ decision to retire creates another opportunity for the president to nominate a replacement. Stevens’ timing so close to the contentious health care has the potential to be just as volatile. Supreme Court Justices serve for life and Republicans are not eager to allow Obama to appoint a “liberal” to the bench.
In the House races, many of the seats gained by Democrats in the last two election cycles were in districts which leaned Republican. In 40 of those districts, voters voted for President George W. Bush in 2004 and half of the voters in those districts voted for John McCain in 2008. It is not unreasonable to assume a majority of those districts will return into the hands of the Republican candidate.
The Senate is a bit more unpredictable. No one would have predicted the seat of the late Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy would fall into the hands of a Republican. Delaware was considered a safe Democratic seat until the vice president’s son, Beau Biden, decided not to run for office. Now it appears a Republican, the moderate Mike Castle, will win that seat. The fall elections are so unpredictable, there are some experts suggesting the solidly Democratic State of California may elect one of Senator Barbara Boxer’s (D) Republican challengers to replace her.
While a great deal of attention is focused on the congressional elections, the gubernatorial races could significantly shape Congress for the future. According to the Center for Politics, there are 23 states with no incumbents running for governor, including the big states of California, New York, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. New York and Pennsylvania are expected to lose seats after the Census Bureau has completed its tally of the 2010 Census. Congressional maps will be redrawn as a result of the census results and the party in power will control that process. Historically, redistricting has been a vehicle for the party in power to protect its members while punishing the opposing party.
What should affordable housing advocates do next? Here are our suggestions:
1. Learn from the Tea Party. Grassroots organizing and education are critical to ensure your concerns are reflected by candidates.
2. Make sure you educate all of your constituents, workers, etc., on the importance of sending back in Census forms and what it means to your community. (We will discuss the Census in greater detail in a future posting.)
3. Although you likely cannot tell others how to vote, make sure to tell them to vote and why it is important.
4. Solidify your relationships now with businesses, churches, non-profits and other groups and see what common ground exists politically.
5. As you are discussing issues, be sure to listen. Ask residents and other groups what is important to them. You may be surprised at what you learn.
6. Rehearse your elevator speech now. Be prepared to tell both elected officials and candidates who you are and why your concerns matter. Let them know that you are not just a housing advocate, but a person that represents a block of voters, and tell them how many.
7. Remember, elected officials, for all of their talk of service, are most interested in themselves. That’s why they are putting up with all of the headaches of running for office. Therefore, find common ground. If you went to the same college, use that to your advantage. If their play children play soccer and your do too, find an artful way to mention soccer when you talk to them.
8. Be fair in your criticism and praise of your elected official. Research until you find at least one vote on which the incumbent did something right, and thank them for it.
9. Treat Republicans like Democrats and vice versa. Advocates simply can’t assume they will receive support or opposition from their congressional representative.
10. There is a fine line between being persistent and a pain in the rear. Strike the right balance between being a pest and being a professional.
11. Know your issues well enough so that you can express your concerns in a way that is meaningful to the incumbent.
12. Take the time to educate candidates on the work you are doing in the community. If the incumbent is never with you on any issues, try as hard as you can to get someone else elected.
13. Remember all politics is local. National member groups, by their nature, do not have the focus to assist much with the issues that may be in play in your district or state. Therefore, strike a careful balance between your local concerns and support of national issues.
Next week’s posting will focus on the economy.
Interesting Read
Housing and Community Development
Economy has shifted Americans' attitudes about homeownership and money
By Sadie Dingfelder
Special to the Washington Post
Renting isn't reckless if you're not ready for homeownership
By Michelle Singletary
The Washington Post
Foreclosures create opportunities in Prince George's, Md.
By Ovetta Wiggins
The Washington Post
Thousands May Lose Rental Vouchers
By Cara Buckley
New York Times
The Invisible Underclass
By Eugene Robinson
The Washington Post
Faith in homeownership drops, Fannie Mae poll shows
By Renae Merle
The Washington Post
Baltimore takes a holistic approach to unhealthy housing
By Eliza Barclay
The Washington Post
Obama to meet at the White House with black church leaders
By Hamil R. Harris and Krissah Thompson
The Washington Post
Politics
A census sign that the Tea Party is less than it seems
By Dana Milbank
The Washington Post
Republicans focus efforts on November, say 2012 can wait
By Dan Balz
The Washington Post
Of Swans and Spoilers
Heading toward Election Day, Democrats won't be getting much help on the jobs front.
By Charlie Cook
The National Journal
Hispanics skeptical that Obama, Democrats will deliver immigration overhaul
By Sandhya Somashekar
The Washington Post
Anger over health-care reform spurs rise in threats against Congress members
By Sari Horwitz and Ben Pershing
The Washington Post
Five ways Michael Steele could come back
By Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post
