10:51 PM
Julio Barreto
The drama surrounding the current election season will come to a close November 2nd and the ensuing results will usher in the next chapter of our country’s political history. Beyond the numbers, time will tell which political party, which individuals and which movement was victorious. However, for the country to expect anything less than more partisanship is naïve and unrealistic.
Post-Election Partisanship
The partisanship will begin the moment the results are tallied. If predictions are correct, history will stay true to form and the party of the president in power, Democrats, will suffer losses. The size and severity of those losses are debatable at this time. The estimate of Democratic losses in the House of Representatives ranges from 40 to 75. It is possible, but unlikely, Republicans will gain the 10 seats necessary to control the Senate but it is not unrealistic for them to gain as many as eight seats. One of those seats could be the one held by Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) the current Senate Majority Leader.
Posturing will begin the minute the polls close. Republicans will make it clear they intend to put a halt to or delay any of President Barack Obama’s initiatives. Fireworks will begin to fly during the congressional lame duck session which is expected to begin approximately a week after the election. Among the issues to be debated during that session is the extension of the Bush tax cuts, extending unemployment benefits and passing a 2011 budget for federal agencies. Republicans will use this session to flex their muscle and lay the groundwork for next year’s congressional session.
Gridlock will be the rule not the exception
Don’t expect much congressional action next year or during the early months of 2012. Make no mistake, beginning November 3rd every political action is geared to building momentum for Democrats to keep or for Republicans to reclaim, the White House. Nothing will come easy for either party as each tries to exert its will on the other.
In victory, the Republicans will have more to lose than the president. They contend to know how to right the ship they helped steer aground. They will no longer be able to simply be obstructionist but must become legislators. In legislating they will need to compromise which may not sit well the increased number of “true” conservatives, including Tea Party candidates, expected to march into office. There is enough infighting within the party to cause trouble for itself as it navigates an agenda for the next year or two. Realistically, Congress will have 2011 and the first three to four months of 2012 to enact legislative initiatives. In the spring of 2012 presidential campaigning will be in full swing.
The country will learn a great deal about President Obama’s leadership abilities, his toughness and political astuteness in the next 12 to 15 months. How he handles himself will determine his prospects for reelection. If he handles himself well, he will have the party behind him heading into the reelection campaign of 2012. If not, he will likely be challenged from within the party.
State Elections are Where the Action Is
Keep your eyes on the state elections. The party in control of the statehouse will heavy influence the political representation of that state for the next 10 years. The future composition of Congress and the federal largess enjoyed by congressional districts hang in the balance of these elections.
Interesting Read
Late Senate polls show GOP trending up slightly
By Aaron Blake
The Washington Post
Spin cycle: What will top Dems say?
By Alexander Burns & Jonathan Martin
Politico
The Five Faulty Theories that Led Obama and Democrats to Disaster
By Fred Barnes
The Weekly Standard
The Next Two Years
By William Kristol
The Weekly Standard
Next for GOP leaders: Stopping Sarah Palin
By Mike Allen & Jim Vandehei
Politico
Sarah Palin: Thin-skinned, smartly strategic (or both)?
By Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post
Post-Election Partisanship
The partisanship will begin the moment the results are tallied. If predictions are correct, history will stay true to form and the party of the president in power, Democrats, will suffer losses. The size and severity of those losses are debatable at this time. The estimate of Democratic losses in the House of Representatives ranges from 40 to 75. It is possible, but unlikely, Republicans will gain the 10 seats necessary to control the Senate but it is not unrealistic for them to gain as many as eight seats. One of those seats could be the one held by Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) the current Senate Majority Leader.
Posturing will begin the minute the polls close. Republicans will make it clear they intend to put a halt to or delay any of President Barack Obama’s initiatives. Fireworks will begin to fly during the congressional lame duck session which is expected to begin approximately a week after the election. Among the issues to be debated during that session is the extension of the Bush tax cuts, extending unemployment benefits and passing a 2011 budget for federal agencies. Republicans will use this session to flex their muscle and lay the groundwork for next year’s congressional session.
Gridlock will be the rule not the exception
Don’t expect much congressional action next year or during the early months of 2012. Make no mistake, beginning November 3rd every political action is geared to building momentum for Democrats to keep or for Republicans to reclaim, the White House. Nothing will come easy for either party as each tries to exert its will on the other.
In victory, the Republicans will have more to lose than the president. They contend to know how to right the ship they helped steer aground. They will no longer be able to simply be obstructionist but must become legislators. In legislating they will need to compromise which may not sit well the increased number of “true” conservatives, including Tea Party candidates, expected to march into office. There is enough infighting within the party to cause trouble for itself as it navigates an agenda for the next year or two. Realistically, Congress will have 2011 and the first three to four months of 2012 to enact legislative initiatives. In the spring of 2012 presidential campaigning will be in full swing.
The country will learn a great deal about President Obama’s leadership abilities, his toughness and political astuteness in the next 12 to 15 months. How he handles himself will determine his prospects for reelection. If he handles himself well, he will have the party behind him heading into the reelection campaign of 2012. If not, he will likely be challenged from within the party.
State Elections are Where the Action Is
Keep your eyes on the state elections. The party in control of the statehouse will heavy influence the political representation of that state for the next 10 years. The future composition of Congress and the federal largess enjoyed by congressional districts hang in the balance of these elections.
Interesting Read
Late Senate polls show GOP trending up slightly
By Aaron Blake
The Washington Post
Spin cycle: What will top Dems say?
By Alexander Burns & Jonathan Martin
Politico
The Five Faulty Theories that Led Obama and Democrats to Disaster
By Fred Barnes
The Weekly Standard
The Next Two Years
By William Kristol
The Weekly Standard
Next for GOP leaders: Stopping Sarah Palin
By Mike Allen & Jim Vandehei
Politico
Sarah Palin: Thin-skinned, smartly strategic (or both)?
By Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post
