8:40 PM
Julio Barreto
A new report states the Hispanic vote can have a dramatic effect on 40 state and congressional races in the 2010 mid-term election.
The report, The Power of the Latino Vote in the 2010 Election, looks at Hispanic voting patterns from as far back as 2000 and how those votes could impact the 2010 mid-term elections. It cites numerous studies which point out immigration is a defining issue for Hispanics even the economy is identified as the community’s number one issue.
According to the report, a politician’s position on immigration reform “serves as a lens though which Latinos assess the political environment and candidate attitudes not just towards immigrants, but towards the community as a whole.”
The report was released by America’s Voice which started in 2008 with a focus on communications and media as part of a renewed effort to win comprehensive immigration reform. America’s Voice speaks directly to key audiences through the mainstream, new, and Spanish-language media, conducts cutting edge public opinion research, communications, and online campaigns, and supports courageous leaders from all walks of life who are standing up for workable comprehensive immigration reform now.
The report notes Hispanics tend to trend in voting towards Democrat; however, it reports that 40 percent of the Hispanic vote consists of foreign-born naturalized citizens who have proven to be “swing votes” in various elections. This population voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama versus John McCain in 2008 (75% to 25%) after voting for the 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry by a smaller margin (52% to 48%).
The report also cites a number of examples where a Republican candidate’s position on immigration is a key factor in determining the level of support he or she can expect from Hispanic voters. For example, McCain reversed his long-standing support for comprehensive immigration reform during his pursuit of the presidency. He decided to support a tougher stance calling for border security before any other reforms take place. That position hurt him with Hispanic voters. Conversely, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s support among Hispanics increased during his reelection campaign in 2006 after he supported comprehensive immigration reform.
The reports identifies 40 key state, House and Senate races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia where the Hispanic vote can have significant impact in determining the winner. The report includes the following information to illustrate this contention:
• One in five (79) congressional districts has a Hispanic population of at least 25 percent.
• Twenty-five Republican Members of Congress represent districts with Hispanic representation at 25 percent or higher.
• In the 2008 election, approximately 10 million Hispanics voted compared to 2.5 million in 2004.
• Voter registration among Hispanics grew 10 percent from 2000 to 2008.
• Texas and Florida saw turnout increase by 31 and 81 percent respectively between 2000 and 2008.
• Hispanics saw their numbers increase in other parts of the country as well between 2000 and 2008. For example, Georgia saw a 392 percent increase in its Hispanic while North Carolina (250%), Nevada (164%) and South Carolina (157%) also saw sizable increases in Hispanic residents.
• Hispanics voted for President Obama in greater numbers in 2008 than they did for Kerry in 2004. In 2004, Kerry won the Hispanic vote by a 19 percent margin (59 to 40); however, Obama won the Hispanic vote in 2008 by a 36 percent margin (67 to 31).
• The report believes states looking to gain congressional seats after the latest Census is complete will do so in large part to the influx of Hispanics; conversely, states losing congressional seats would do worst had Hispanics not moved there.
The report also warns Democrats not to take the Hispanic vote lightly. In its conclusion, it points out that Democrats run the risk of alienating the Hispanic vote this fall if it does not pursue meaningful immigration reform.
Bayh Retirement Complicates Mid-Term Election Strategy for Democrats and Could Prove Costly for Housing Advocates
Sen. Evan Bayh’s (D-IN) decision to retire rather than pursue reelection further complicates the Democratic Party’s efforts to hold onto it majority in the Senate and leaves housing advocates with one less ally.
"Congress is not operating as it should," Bayh said at a news conference in Indianapolis, adding there's too much partisanship and "the people's business is not getting done."
Bayh, a former two-term governor, first won election to the Senate in 1998 and won reelection in 2004 with 64 percent of the vote. He joins Sens. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota as Democrats choosing to retire instead of seeking re-election. Democrats now have five open seats to defend this fall where Roland Burris of Illinois and Ted Kaufman of Delaware will not seek re-election for their appointed seats.
Republicans have six seats to defend including those of retiring Sens. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, Kit Bond of Missouri, Jim Bunning of Kentucky, George Voinovich of Ohio and Sam Brownback of Kansas. Sen. George LeMieux of Florida will not pursue re-election. He was appointed to complete the term of Sen. Mel Martinez who resigned before the expiration of his term.
His decision adds to the list of affordable housing supporters who will be leaving the Senate. Bayh was a solid supporter of affordable housing programs, according to the National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials (NAHRO) www.nahro.org. He voted on behalf of affordable housing initiatives 75 percent of the time according to the latest NAHRO scorecard. Of the aforementioned Senators, only Bunning voted for affordable housing programs less than 50 percent of the time according to the NAHRO scorecard.
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The report, The Power of the Latino Vote in the 2010 Election, looks at Hispanic voting patterns from as far back as 2000 and how those votes could impact the 2010 mid-term elections. It cites numerous studies which point out immigration is a defining issue for Hispanics even the economy is identified as the community’s number one issue.
According to the report, a politician’s position on immigration reform “serves as a lens though which Latinos assess the political environment and candidate attitudes not just towards immigrants, but towards the community as a whole.”
The report was released by America’s Voice which started in 2008 with a focus on communications and media as part of a renewed effort to win comprehensive immigration reform. America’s Voice speaks directly to key audiences through the mainstream, new, and Spanish-language media, conducts cutting edge public opinion research, communications, and online campaigns, and supports courageous leaders from all walks of life who are standing up for workable comprehensive immigration reform now.
The report notes Hispanics tend to trend in voting towards Democrat; however, it reports that 40 percent of the Hispanic vote consists of foreign-born naturalized citizens who have proven to be “swing votes” in various elections. This population voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama versus John McCain in 2008 (75% to 25%) after voting for the 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry by a smaller margin (52% to 48%).
The report also cites a number of examples where a Republican candidate’s position on immigration is a key factor in determining the level of support he or she can expect from Hispanic voters. For example, McCain reversed his long-standing support for comprehensive immigration reform during his pursuit of the presidency. He decided to support a tougher stance calling for border security before any other reforms take place. That position hurt him with Hispanic voters. Conversely, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s support among Hispanics increased during his reelection campaign in 2006 after he supported comprehensive immigration reform.
The reports identifies 40 key state, House and Senate races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia where the Hispanic vote can have significant impact in determining the winner. The report includes the following information to illustrate this contention:
• One in five (79) congressional districts has a Hispanic population of at least 25 percent.
• Twenty-five Republican Members of Congress represent districts with Hispanic representation at 25 percent or higher.
• In the 2008 election, approximately 10 million Hispanics voted compared to 2.5 million in 2004.
• Voter registration among Hispanics grew 10 percent from 2000 to 2008.
• Texas and Florida saw turnout increase by 31 and 81 percent respectively between 2000 and 2008.
• Hispanics saw their numbers increase in other parts of the country as well between 2000 and 2008. For example, Georgia saw a 392 percent increase in its Hispanic while North Carolina (250%), Nevada (164%) and South Carolina (157%) also saw sizable increases in Hispanic residents.
• Hispanics voted for President Obama in greater numbers in 2008 than they did for Kerry in 2004. In 2004, Kerry won the Hispanic vote by a 19 percent margin (59 to 40); however, Obama won the Hispanic vote in 2008 by a 36 percent margin (67 to 31).
• The report believes states looking to gain congressional seats after the latest Census is complete will do so in large part to the influx of Hispanics; conversely, states losing congressional seats would do worst had Hispanics not moved there.
The report also warns Democrats not to take the Hispanic vote lightly. In its conclusion, it points out that Democrats run the risk of alienating the Hispanic vote this fall if it does not pursue meaningful immigration reform.
Bayh Retirement Complicates Mid-Term Election Strategy for Democrats and Could Prove Costly for Housing Advocates
Sen. Evan Bayh’s (D-IN) decision to retire rather than pursue reelection further complicates the Democratic Party’s efforts to hold onto it majority in the Senate and leaves housing advocates with one less ally.
"Congress is not operating as it should," Bayh said at a news conference in Indianapolis, adding there's too much partisanship and "the people's business is not getting done."
Bayh, a former two-term governor, first won election to the Senate in 1998 and won reelection in 2004 with 64 percent of the vote. He joins Sens. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota as Democrats choosing to retire instead of seeking re-election. Democrats now have five open seats to defend this fall where Roland Burris of Illinois and Ted Kaufman of Delaware will not seek re-election for their appointed seats.
Republicans have six seats to defend including those of retiring Sens. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, Kit Bond of Missouri, Jim Bunning of Kentucky, George Voinovich of Ohio and Sam Brownback of Kansas. Sen. George LeMieux of Florida will not pursue re-election. He was appointed to complete the term of Sen. Mel Martinez who resigned before the expiration of his term.
His decision adds to the list of affordable housing supporters who will be leaving the Senate. Bayh was a solid supporter of affordable housing programs, according to the National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials (NAHRO) www.nahro.org. He voted on behalf of affordable housing initiatives 75 percent of the time according to the latest NAHRO scorecard. Of the aforementioned Senators, only Bunning voted for affordable housing programs less than 50 percent of the time according to the NAHRO scorecard.
Interesting Read
Housing and Community Development
U.S. Housing Aid Winds Down and Cities Worry
By David Streitfeld
The New York Times
Refinancing unavailable for many borrowers
By Dina ElBoghdady and Renae Merle
The Washington Post
D.C. sees best and worst of recession
By Sandhya Somashekhar
The Washington Post
Stimulus foes see value in seeking cash, Pet projects irresistible to GOP lawmakers
By Jim McElhatton
The Washington Times
Politics
Obama's ratings are crucial to the midterm fortunes of congressional Democrats
By Dan Balz
The Washington Post
Three House retirements spur debate on whether Republicans are losing momentum
By Chris Cilliza and Paul Kane
The Washington Post
Can Sarah Palin translate celebrity into real political power?
By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
New and Improved Romney
He's more fiscal, less social. And he's got millions. But will GOP voters give a Mitt?
By David S. Bernstein
The Boston Phoenix
Success of President Obama's crackdown on lobbying questioned
By Dan Eggen
Washington Post Staff Writer
Should ex-felons vote?
With different laws in each state, some urge a federal answer to the question.
By Emma Dumain
Congress.org
