With the election fast approaching, its outcome, and the subsequent political climate of the nation, is still in doubt. While the specific results are yet to be determined, there are still some predictions we can make about the aftermath of November 2, 2010.
1. There will be a number of surprises on Election Day. Expect the unexpected.
2. Whichever party “wins” November 2, it will overplay the significance of its victory. Historically, the party of the president in office loses congressional seats in the first mid-term elections. The fact of the loss is almost certain. What is not known is how big the loss will be.
3. Very little will be accomplished in Congress as Republicans seek to weaken President Barack Obama in the attempt to reclaim the White House in 2012.
4. The most significant results of the elections on the state level will be the real story of November. The party in power in the statehouse controls the process to redistrict congressional seats. That party also can influence voting patterns in presidential elections. In swing states like California, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Florida, controlling the governorship could prove beneficial in 2012.
Here are some observations to keep in mind as we draw closer to Election Day:
Democrats: It is estimated that 100 House Democratic incumbents are at risk of losing their election. Prognosticators estimate that Democrats will in fact lose from 45 to 75 of those seats and, therefore, Republicans will win control of the House. There is a chance Democrats will retain control of the House but, if that occurs, they will retain it by a small margin. It is unlikely that Democrats will lose control of the Senate but their margin will diminish by as many as seven or eight seats.
It appears the traditional Democratic constituency, unions, women, minorities and liberals, are becoming more engaged in this election cycle which gives the party some hope it can minimize its losses. The Associated Press is reporting that in some states Democrats have submitted more early ballots than Republicans. In Iowa, Maryland, North Carolina, Louisiana, and in Nevada’s Clark County (where two-thirds of the votes in 2008 originated) Democrats have the lead.
Is it too late for Democrats? It may be but it is still too early to tell and a lot can happen between now and Election Day. After the election, President Obama will need to develop a strategy to lead his party against a Republican Party smelling blood.
Republicans: Republicans are confident of a resounding victory this November. They are so confident that current House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) is promising choice committee assignments to candidates to help boost their election prospects. Republicans are not only confident they will take control of the House but also functional control of the Senate. They are already developing strategies to confront the White House with subpoenas, hearings, proposals to cut funding for the health care bill, etc.
The Republican Party needs to be careful not to repeat the strategy of the House under the leadership of Newt Gingrich which led to the shutting down of the government. That strategy turned the public against the Republicans and eventually led to Gingrich’s downfall. They do need to temper their confidence. There is a chance Democrats will either retain control of the House or lose the House by a slight margin. Anything less than a resounding victory will punch a hole in the sails of Republicans.
Tea Party candidates: Assuming they win their elections, they will be a problem for Republicans specifically, and the Congress generally. They will be forced to turn the anger that elected them into a governing style that actually accomplishes something substantively. They can be elected in sizeable numbers to continue to force Republicans to the right. How their approach translates into a governing style will be interesting to watch. Until then, there is the real possibility that their candidates will implode on the campaign trail. Sharon Angle, Christine O’Donnell, Ron Paul and Joe Miller have each stumbled badly on the campaign trail.
State Races: This is the real story of the election. Republicans are poised to make major gains in gubernatorial races. The party controlling the statehouse has the power to influence, approve or veto redistricting plans which don’t meet its satisfaction. The reshaping of congressional seats helps to determine who is elected to the House of Representatives.
Nick Ayers, executive director of the National Republican Governors, told
CNN redistricting could result in 15 to 20 House seats changing parties. He told CNN that his message to Republicans is, "The only way to prevent Democrats from controlling an unfair process is to win the governors' seats where redistricting is up."
Keep an eye on Proposition 20 in California. This ballot initiative, if approved, would remove elected representatives from being involved in the redistricting process. California has historically been known as a “bell weather” state, meaning what happens in that state tends to reverberate to other parts of the country.
2010 Census: The results of the 2010 census, while technically not an issue on Election Day, is a major factor hanging over the state races. The census results will influence redistricting decisions. Some states, like Pennsylvania and New York, are expected to lose congressional seats. The party in power will seek to redraw lines with the intent to protect its own, but the loss of one congressional seat could mean a reduction of millions of Federal dollars to that state.
Also, don’t be surprised if there is a significant increase of Latinos in states where Hispanic representation has been historically low. Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Education Fund, said he believes the story of the 2010 census will be the rise of the Latino South.
Economic issues: The economy, tax cuts, earmarks, reducing the deficit and the cost of health care will dominate the discussion of the new Congress. It will likely result in gridlock the next two years. The campaign rhetoric will be over and the elected officials will finally have to govern. Expect political realities to influence congressional decisions. For example, as much as some Republicans are calling an end to earmarks, congressional members of both parties realize the importance of “bringing home the bacon.” Most economic experts expect the economy to rebound in 2012 which will help President Obama in his reelection campaign.
Latino voters: Keep an eye on the Latino (Hispanic) vote. All indications are that unions, African Americans and liberals are getting motivated to go to the polls; however, the mainstream media has made assumptions that Latinos will stay home because of the failure of the administration to pass immigration reform. Vargas has criticized a recent ad in Nevada calling for Latinos not to vote. Vargas said Latino voters are fully engaged and prepared to assert itself in November.
Latino Vote expected to grow 17 percent in NovemberNearly one million new Latino voters are expected to participate in this year’s midterm election representing a 17 percent increase above the total that voted in the 2006 midterm election, according to a report released October 19 in Washington, DC.
The NALEO Educational Fund estimates that 6.5 million Latinos will vote this November. Vargas states that Latinos are fully engaged this election cycle in spite of reports in the mainstream media indicating Hispanics will not vote in large numbers this fall.
“The Latino
vote is fully engaged and ready to vote,” said Vargas. “Our polling and outreach shows Latinos voting participation will likely surpass our projections.” The NALEO Educational Fund is the nation's leading non-partisan, non-profit organization that facilitates full Latino participation in the American political process, from citizenship to public service.
Vargas said Latinos have been receiving the bulk of their information from Spanish-language media which is more involved in reporting the issues of concern to Latinos than the mainstream media. Vargas’ group has partnered with a number of other organizations to launch a campaign to get 250,000 low propensity voters to become engaged and
vote. The
campaign consists of national Latino advocacy organizations, leading Spanish-language media partners, and local community based organizations (CBOs). They are committed to increasing Latino participation using a multi-layered approach. They are reaching out by utilizing the Spanish-language media, nonprofits, the internet, etc.
Vargas expects Latinos to have a significant impact in a number of
races. He said that in races for the U.S. House of Representatives, the number of Latinos in Congress could increase by as many as three:
• Washington State, Representative Jaime Herrera (R) is currently running ahead in her bid
for that state’s 3rd congressional district, and could become the first Hispanic of either major
party to represent the Evergreen State in Congress.
• In Florida, the seat held by U.S. Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart (R) in the 25th congressional district
could become a win for the Democrats if former Obama administration official Joe García
wins his bid. That race is currently a toss-up.
• In Texas, businessman Bill Flores (R) is locked in a very tight race with Rep. Chet Edwards
(D) in the 17th congressional district.
Vargas also pointed to one of the nation’s most closely watched contests for Senate in Florida which includes a Latino candidate:
• Former Florida Speaker of the House Marco Rubio (R) is locked in a tight, three-way race
with Governor Charlie Crist (I) and U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) to fill the seat once held
by retired Sen. Mel Martínez (R). Latinos represent almost 13% of registered voters in the
Sunshine State, and are a key constituency in this closely watched race.
In statewide races, Latinos are running in several of the most competitive races in the country.
• In New Mexico, Doña Ana County (Las Cruces) District Attorney Susana Martínez (R) is in
a close race with Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) in the gubernatorial race.
• In Nevada, federal judge and former Nevada Attorney General Brian Sandoval (R) is running
ahead of Clark County Commission Chair Rory Reid (D) and could become the state’s first
Latino governor.
Vargas further states that Latino candidates running for state Senate and state Houses nationwide are expected to make gains; nine seats in the state upper chambers (from 65 to 74) and five in the state lower chambers (from 179 to 184). Latinos are running for top positions in 41 states throughout the nation – which shows political progress in both the traditional Latino population centers, and in regions with emerging Latino communities. In this year’s election -- both as candidates and as voters -- Latinos are poised to play a key role in shaping the nation’s political landscape.
NBC Identifies Potential Leaders in Light of Republican Victory on Election DayMSNBC’s
First Read took a look at the Republican men and women who would likely assume the leadership positions and committee gavels if Republicans take back the House. The leadership, per NBC’s Luke Russert reporting, is expected to be the following:
Speaker: John Boehner (R-OH)
Majority leader: Eric Cantor (R-VA)
Majority whip: Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) or Pete Sessions (R-TX) GOP conference chair: Mike Pence (R-IN) GOP conference vice-chair: Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (R-WA) NRCC chair: Sessions or McCarthy
The men and women who would be House GOP chairs: And, per NBC’s Russert, here are the people who are likely to become the committee chairs:
Appropriations: Harold Rogers (R-KY) or Jerry Lewis (R-CA) Armed Services: Buck McKeon (R-CA)
Budget: Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Education and Labor: John Kline (R-MN)
Energy and Commerce: Fred Upton (R-MI) or John Shimkus (R-IL) Financial Services: Spencer Bachus (R-AL), Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), or Ed Royce (R-CA) Foreign Affairs: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) Homeland Security: Peter King (R-NY)
Judiciary: Lamar Smith (R-TX)
Oversight and Government Reform: Darrell Issa (R-CA)
Rules: David Dreier (R-CA)
Standards of Official Conduct/Ethics: Jo Bonner (R-AL) Transportation and Infrastructure: John Mica (R-FL) Ways and Means: Dave Camp (R-MI)
If Republicans win back the Senate in November, NBC’s Ken Strickland has put together this list of the likely GOP Senate leadership:
Majority leader: Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Assistant majority leader (whip): Jon Kyl (R-AZ) Conference chair: Lamar Alexander (R-TN) Conference vice-chair: John Barrasso (R-WY) Policy committee chair: John Thune (R-SD) NRSC chair: John Cornyn (R-TX) President pro tempore: Dick Lugar (R-IN)
The men and women who would be Senate GOP chairs: And, per NBC’s Ken Strickland, here are the likely GOP Senate chairs:
Appropriations: Thad Cochran (R-MS)
Armed Services: John McCain (R-AZ)
Banking: Richard Shelby (R-AL)
Budget: Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Commerce: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)
Energy and Natural Resources: Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) or Richard Burr (R-NC) Environment and Public Works: Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
Finance: Chuck Grassley (R-IA)
Foreign Relations: Dick Lugar (R-IN)
Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions: Mike Enzi (R-WY)
Judiciary: Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
Homeland Security and Government Affairs: Susan Collins (R-ME)
Interesting Read2010 ElectionElection Day could bring historic split: Democrats lose House, keep SenateBy Karen Tumulty
The Washington Post
More Democrats casting early ballotsBy Nancy Benac and Liz Sidoti
Associated Press
The early vote: Signs of GOP passionBy Molly Ball
Politico
The new political map: Welcome to 2004By Jonathan Martin & Alex Isenstadt
Politico
Every big Senate race just got closerBy Alexander Burns
Politico
Barack Obama struggles to win women backBy Carol E. Lee & Glenn Thrush
Politico
Democrats face power struggleBy Manu Raju
Politico
Five governors races to watchBy Chris Cilliza
The Washington Post
Hispanic organizers don't see Democrats' fundingBy Carrie Budoff Brown
Politico
How GOP could win the 10 seats needed to take back SenateBy Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post
Can Democrats and Republicans work together after the election?By Tom Cohen
CNN
Black Turnout Will Be Crucial for Democrats on Election DayBy Kevin Sack
The Washington Post
The landscape as the final midterm sprint beginsBy Dan Balz
The Washington Post
GOP poised for big election gainsASSOCIATED PRESS
Black voters may be just as engaged as they were in 2008, polls showBy Krissah Thompson and Nia-Malika Henderson
The New York Times
Tea Party Set to Win Enough Races for Wide InfluenceBy Kate Zernike
The New York Times
Why Business Doesn't Trust the Tea PartyBy Lisa Lerer and John McCormick
Bloomberg Business Week
In Wisconsin, the 2010 campaign story distilledBy Jim Vandehei
Politico
Democrats fear wipeout for womenBy Marin Cogan
Politico
GOP Tries to Capitalize on Expanding House FieldBy John McArdle
CQ-Roll Call
Year of the missing candidateBy Jonathan Martin
Politics
People of 2010 ElectionPresident Obama’s white working-class problemBy Glenn Thrush
Politico
Education of a PresidentBy Peter Baker
The New York Times Magazine
Boehner’s Path to Power Began in Southern OhioBy Jennifer Steinhauer and Carl Hulse
The New York Times
Five myths about Sarah PalinBy Matthew Continetti
The Washington Post
Bond With Past Foe Is Fodder for Attack on CuomoBy David M. Halbfinger
The New York Times
Newt Gingrich’s rhetoric will backfireBy Joe Scarborough
Politico
State ElectionsThe Sweep: Governors' races are 'main event' in 2010By Jessica Yellin
CNN
Housing and Community DevelopmentLooking AheadBY Jacob Gaffney
Housingwire Magazine
As G.O.P. Seeks Spending Cuts, Details Are ScarceBy David M. Herszenhorn
The New York Times
Florida community feels ripple effects as paperwork issues stall foreclosuresBy Brady Dennis
The Washington Post
From This House, a National Foreclosure FreezeBy David Streitfield
The New York Times
Lack of proper mortgage paper trail could leave big banks reeling againBy Ariana Eunjung Cha and Jia Lynn Yang
The Washington Post
The Political Rumble Over Public Pension CostsBy Ben Elgin, Chad Terhune, Christopher Palmeri and Dunstan McNichol
Bloomberg Business Week
12:14 AM
Julio Barreto
