A View From D. C.

Friday, October 1, 2010

Interesting Reads

9:46 AM

Julio Barreto

The Midterm Election of ‘62: A Real “October Surprise”
By Rhodes Cook
Crystal Ball

Report: Fla. adds 2 seats, N.Y. loses
By Richard E. Cohen
Politico

If Voters Choose Divided Power, What Then?
By Morton M. Kondracke
Roll Call

What to watch as Rahm Emanuel leaves
By Glenn Thrush & Kendra Marr
Politico

The GOP's 'Pledge to America': a closer look at the details
By Perry Bacon Jr.
Washington Post

After 2 turbulent years, officials assess TARP
By Brady Dennis
The Washington Post

The Secret World of Extreme Militias
By Barton Gellman
Time Magazine

Glenn Beck is obsessed with Hitler and Woodrow Wilson. (I'm just saying.)
By Dana Milbank
The Washington Post

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Friday, September 24, 2010

Drama Surrounds November Election

9:33 AM

Julio Barreto

No comments

We at Viewfromdc want to thank Sarah Palin, the Tea Party and the Republican Party for the political theater known as the November election which has engulfed the country. Not even Shakespeare, Twain or Hemingway could have written a better drama.

As we begin to head into the home stretch toward the November election, there are a few clear factors which will shape the outcome this fall:

1. Republicans are currently riding high with momentum. All predictions call for a major victory for Republicans, possibly of historic proportions.

2. The economy is the principal cause for the momentum enjoyed by Republicans. As unemployment continues to hover close to 10 percent, the electorate is increasingly disenchanted with the president’s economic policies.

3. Republicans still have not resolved their internal debate with the Tea Party movement which will have a significant impact on their ability to legislate. While the Tea Party candidate in Utah, Michael Lee, appears to be a shoo-in to win election to the Senate representing that state, other Tea Party candidates still must prove they can win a general election.

4. Democrats need to regroup and develop a post-election strategy which may include a change in leadership on Capitol Hill.

5. While the short-term prognosis for housing and community development programs looks good, there are ominous signs that cuts to vital housing programs could be a part of the future.

Let the Fighting Begin

The Republicans seem to be doing all they can to squander the good fortune the current political environment is affording them. All of the major polls and political experts agree Republicans are poised for major gains at the congressional and state level. However, intraparty fighting is bubbling to the surface as Tea Party activists have turned the primary season upside down by electing candidates of their choice to represent the party in a number of key states.

The latest beneficiary of the Tea Party support was Christine O’Donnell who won the Republican nomination for senator in Delaware. She will run against the Democratic nominee, Chris Coons. O’Donnell’s victory comes at the price of Castle, a popular former governor and most recently the House Representative for the State. He was expected to defeat Coons handily and be a key victory in the Republicans quest to regain the Senate. Now, there is significant doubt that O’Donnell can defeat Coons this fall.

O’Donnell’s victory follows the defeat of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) by Tea Party candidate, Joe Miller, in the Alaska primary. Murkowski is defying party officials and has decided to pursue retaining her seat as a write-in candidate. Even though the party’s leadership at the national level stands behind Miller, a civil war is brewing within the party’s rank and file.

While primary results are typically determined by the most ardent party supporters, the victory by Tea Party candidates in Nevada, Kentucky and Delaware raises a number of concerns for the Republican Party in the fall. First, it is unclear if Tea Party candidates can win in a general election. A win in the primary doesn’t guarantee a win in the fall. With the exception of Utah and possibly Kentucky, there is genuine concern about the ability of Tea Party candidates to connect with “mainstream voters.”

Second, if Republicans do win control of the Senate, how they govern will be interesting to watch. Republicans releases a Pledge to America promising to create jobs, cut taxes, curtail government spending and protect the country. The message sounds good but what does it mean when it is time to govern? Will they govern from a Tea Party platform of reducing Federal spending and reducing taxes which includes facing a showdown with President Obama? This approach will satisfy the conservative base in the party but will it have broad public appeal? The last time Republicans did this was in 1995 and it backfired on them. They received the bulk of the blame and galvanized support for then President Bill Clinton.

There are some Republicans and Tea Party supporters who relish the thought of a government shutdown. If Republicans regain either chamber, they will clearly have a major say in national policy for the next two years. This can be both a blessing and a curse to the party. They will be pressured by Tea Party supporters and their allies, to do all they can to reduce taxes and limit the Federal government’s authority. However, Republicans must be careful. House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) has indicated he believes the Tea Party supporters have the potential to shape policy on the Hill. If so, a repeat of 1995 is possible.

Republicans are becoming so confident they will regain control, they have already promised oversight hearings to embarrass the administration, will seek to defund the health care initiative and some members have openly discussed confronting the president into a showdown resulting in a shutdown of the Federal government. With Republican momentum on the upswing, the party is unanimous in opposing the president’s call to eliminate the tax cuts enacted during the Bush administration for those earning above $250,000 a year.The president wants to make tax cuts for those earning under $250,000 permanent and allow the cuts for those above that figure to expire. To Republicans, it is all or nothing.

It will be interesting to watch the Tea Party approach to governing. Will they adhere to principles over platform or will they adjust to the realities of governing and compromise? There is a tension between the Tea Party's three principles (limited government, fiscal responsibility and free enterprise) and the realities of having to govern. If you are for fiscal responsibility and for tax cuts, then how will you move toward balancing the budget? What will you do about entitlement spending - Social Security and Medicare – which some of the Tea Party activists rely on? If you even try to close a post office, the rural limited government pro-fiscal responsibility folks in the community turn into rabid pro-jobs, cut-somebody-else activists.

From a purely political standpoint, the Tea Party's refusal to offer anything about the specifics is brilliant. It's like Obama's promise of change. The Tea Party wants to get their people elected first. But you can only be a radical outsider once. When the election is over, the coalition will break apart when the hard choices have to be made.

Tea Party Victory Could Help Housing Agenda

The election of Tea Party candidates could enhance efforts to enact legislation granting housing authorities’ greater flexibility in the administration of their programs. While national groups representing housing and community development issues have fared well in the bills up for approval, this year Congress approved cuts to food programs and has frozen future domestic spending. Additionally, the administration is proposing significant cuts to defense spending at levels unheard of in Washington. This does not bode well for increased funding for housing programs. It could; however, spur discussion on deregulation.

The three major public housing groups, Council of Large Public Housing Agencies (CLPHA), Pubic Housing Authorities Directors Association (PHADA) and the National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials (NAHRO), have agreed upon a set of principles which they hope will guide Congress on deregulation efforts. It is unlikely anything of significance will happen so close to the election. This will create a lame duck session in mid to late November; during which it is unlikely much will get done except for a continuing resolution (CR). A CR is a temporary funding measure which keeps the government open for a fix period of time. In this case, the likely scenario is that Congress will pass a CR to keep the government funded until sometime in January.

All indications are a Republican Landslide

Major news organization s have prominently reported that recent polls show the president’s support declining while generic support for Republicans is gaining. This is not atypical for the mid-year election cycle of a first-term president, according to Larry Sabato and Mark Abromovitz of the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball who have written extensively on this subject.

Sabato believes Republicans are in position to gain enough seats to take over the House and come within striking distance of reclaiming the Senate. Stu Rothenberg, a political analyst in Washington, DC, believes Republicans will reclaim both chambers. Charlie Cook, another highly regarded political analyst and author of the Cook Political Report, believes Republicans will fall short of controlling both chambers but he believes they will take the house.

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Monday, August 23, 2010

Interesting Read

11:38 PM

Julio Barreto

No comments

Enclosed you will find a series of articles which help explain some of the political discourse which can change the dynamics in Washington this fall. Next week, we will include a posting which will summarize some of the key issues which will dominate DC in the fall.

Politics

Reagan's first term offers measuring stick for Obama
By Dan Balz
The Washington Post

Poll numbers in 1994, a bad year for Democrats, don't bode well for them in 2010
By Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post

In South Dakota, Democrats' own 'mama grizzly' vs. 'the next Sarah Palin'
By Philip Rucker
The Washington Post

Establishment candidates in Arizona, Florida rally against 'outsider' rivals
By Dan Balz
The Washington Post

10 things Obama must do in 10 weeks
By Kristi Keck
CNN

Obama's Four Disasters
Heckuva job, Mr. President.
By Fred Barnes
The Weekly Standard

Does Barack Obama want to be re-elected in 2012?
Toby Harnden
The Telegraph

When Economic Policy Became Social Policy
By Peter J. Wallison
The American

In Florida, a Candidate Veers From Tea Party’s Script
By Jeff Zeleny
The New York Times

Race An Undeniable Aspect of Democrats’ Ethics Troubles
By Josh Kurtz
Congressional Quarterly

End run: Romney's crafty financing
By Jeanne Cummings & Andy Barr
Politico

Debate on taxes affects the savers
By Patrice Hill
The Washington Times

GOP takes harsher stance toward Islam
By Ben Smith and Maggie Haberman
Politico

Five myths about midterm elections
By Alan Abramowitz and Norman Ornstein
The Washington Post

With Obama address, Democrats revive specter of GOP threat to Social Security
By Michael D. Shear and Lori Montgomery
The Washington Post

Desperate Democrats pin their hopes on scary Republicans
By Dan Balz
The Washington Post

Prominent Democrats want Kennedy's widow to run for his Senate seat
By Mary Ann Akers and Philip Rucker
The Washington Post

Will its offbeat candidates hurt GOP?
By Alexander Burns
Politico

How Michael Bennet made it look easy
By David Catanese
Politico

Using the Generic Ballot to Forecast Gubernatorial Elections
Alan I. Abramowitz, Senior Columnist
Crystal Ball

Profiles

Newt Gingrich: The Indispensable Republican
By John H. Richardson
Esquire Magazine

Lazio Finds an Issue in Furor Over Islamic Center
By Michael Barbaro
New York Times

Joe Sestak, the 60th Democrat
By Michael Sokolove
The New York Times

The most powerful Republican in politics
By Jim Vandehei, Andy Barr & Kenneth P. Vogel
Politico

Thank You for Not Screaming
By Lisa Depaulo
GQ Magazine

The Making of Andrew Cuomo
By Jonathan Mahler
The New York Times

Housing and Community Development

Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth, Analysts Say
By David Streitfeld
New York Times

Kill Fannie, Freddie
By Boston Herald Editorial Staff

Rovian immigration fallacy
By Tom Garcia
The Washington Times

Read more »

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Interesting Reads

10:01 AM

Julio Barreto

No comments

Read more »

Monday, July 12, 2010

Summer Lays Foundation for Fall Contests

1:04 PM

Julio Barreto

No comments

As Congress returns from its July 4 recess, recent events reinforced the belief that the November election will be filled with surprises. So far we have learned:

1. In certain cases, being an incumbent has not helped. Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC) is the latest incumbent to lose his reelection effort; however, the anti-incumbent fever may not be as strong as indicated in the media.

2. Republicans are still expected to make majors gains this fall.

3. The Republican Party is hoping the primary results in South Carolina where an African American and Indian American were nominated to represent the party in a congressional and gubernatorial race will demonstrate the party is more racially and ethnically diverse.

4. Ron Paul and Sharron Angle, Republican Senate candidates and Tea Party Favorites in Kentucky and Nevada respectively, must prove their platform will appeal to a broader audience.

5. Unions will seek to push Democrats to the left as the Tea Party is pushing Republicans to the right.

6. Democrats run the risk of alienating Hispanic voters by focusing on a punitive approach to immigration reform instead of the type of comprehensive reform promised by President Obama during his campaign.

Inglis Defeat

Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC) is the latest incumbent to lose his reelection bid.
Inglis joins Sen. Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah), Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), Alan B. Mollohan (D-WV), and Rep. Parker Griffin (R-AL) as incumbents who have lost primary battles. His major crime – he supported the Federal bailout of the banking industry and opposed the Iraq troop surge in 2007. Ironically, he was recently honored for his “consistent support of conservative principles on a wide range of issues” by the American Conservative Union. He has a lifetime rating of 93.4 percent with the group.

The loss by Inglis is another example of the volatility of voting patterns; however, some writers are not convinced being an incumbent is a bad thing. While anti-incumbent fever is high this election cycle, it is far too simplistic to assume anger against sitting Members of Congress is driving this election cycle. Stuart Rothenberg, a political analyst based in Washington, DC points out that 98 percent of incumbents seeking reelection has been renominated.

Anti-incumbency may be a factor in voter anger but the faltering economy is driving their anxiety. The war, growing frustration with immigration, the oil spill, and lingering uneasiness about the impact of health care reform continue to create opportunities for Republicans to exploit in their quest to recapture one or both chambers of Congress.

Republican Gains still expected to be high

Republicans are hoping voter discontent will result in major gains for their party. There are some observers holding onto the belief Republicans will regain control of both the House and Senate. However, elections are not an exact science. Much can happen between now and the election and Republicans have not fared well in the special elections held this year which they were expected to win. Additionally, the infighting within the Republican Party has not stopped. Republicans can’t seem to stop putting their feet in their mouths. The remarks by Party Chairman Michael Steele on Afghanistan created an unwelcomed amount of bad publicity for the party. It has forced prominent Republicans to distance themselves from the remarks and place a spotlight on the trials and tribulations of Steele’s tenure as party chairman.

Steele is the Republican Party’s highest profile minority who has alienated various elements of the party faithful. Due to dissatisfaction with Steele’s leadership, Republican donors have bypassed the party and have contributed to other entities such as the Republican Governors Association headed by Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi. There are some Republicans who feel Steele’s difficulties will adversely impact their efforts in November.

The Republican Party appeared poise to waltz to a landslide victory in November after the health care debate was completed and growing concerns about the deficit increasing forced Democrats to scale back some of their initiatives. The Elena Kagan nomination hearings were expected to rally the Republican base; however, her hearings were uneventful.

While Republicans are expected to make gains this fall, politics is a fickle profession and things can change very quickly. When Charlie Crist decided not to seek the Republican nomination in Florida and run as an independent, most observers predicted he would lose badly and crowned Marco Rubio the next senator from Florida. Rubio was seen as a rising star within the Republican Party and was a darling of the Tea Party. He was expected to easily defeat the Democratic nominee, Rep. Kendrick Meek. Now, Crist is poised to stun the political world and is favored to win the vacant Florida Senate seat as an independent. Assuming he wins, polls show he is comfortably ahead of both Crist and Meek, and he will likely caucus with Democrats and be a major power broker in Washington.

In Nevada, most “experts” were drafting the political obituary for Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). Polls were showing voter dissatisfaction with him which made him a primary target for Republicans to win back that seat. However, Sharron Angle’s Republican primary victory in Nevada has caused many “experts” to now believe Reid will survive his reelection bid. Angle has some within her own party suspicious that her views are in sync with voters. Angle is strongly supported by the Tea Party. She and the other Tea Party candidate, Ron Paul, seem to be avoiding “mainstream” media as much as possible to avoid too much scrutiny. Paul came under fire for suggesting the Federal government had no right to prevent private businesses from discriminating against any one and is the only Republican to support Steele’s Afghanistan remarks.

Two new stars are about to shine within the Republican Party as Nikki Haley seeks to become the first woman of Indian descent to become governor of a state. Haley is representative of a wave of individuals of Indian descent flexing their political muscle. There are at least eight individuals of Asian Indian descent seeking electoral office this year. Haley, like Bobby Jindal in Louisiana, will be prominently featured by Republicans to represent the new diversity of the party.

Joining her will be Tim Scott who defeated the late Senator Strom Thurmond’s (R-SC) son Paul in a congressional race. Scott is poised to become the first African American Congressman since J.C. Watts (R-OK) decided not to seek reelection in 2002.

Union to Flex its Muscle, Hispanic Impact Unclear

Unions were unsuccessful in defeating Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in her primary race this year but have positioned themselves to be the “Tea Party” players of the left. They spent millions of dollars in Arkansas to defeat Blanche but more importantly sent a clear message to Democrats they will not tolerate any middle to the right democratic candidates. It will be interesting to monitor their efforts within the Democratic Party and see how it mirrors the actions of the Tea Party. The Tea Party will continue to impact the Republican strategy heading into the fall. An interesting development occurred recently when Politico reported that Ginny Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, had raised money to position herself as a bridge between the Tea Party supporters and “establishment” members of the party. This is reflects the efforts and resources advocates will expend this fall to influence the outcome of this year’s election. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is expected to spend as much $100 million to ensure Republicans win this fall.

Immigration continues to escalate into an issue which could prove detrimental to both parties. The administration has decided to sue Arizona over the law it passed which allows police to stop any one it believe might be undocumented. Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah appear close to passing similar legislation. Each of the aforementioned states is considered a conservative state and it should not surprise anyone that they would consider enacting that type of legislation. For Democrats in Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah, opposing that type of legislation could spell certain defeat. If the administration believes suing Arizona will compensate for not enacting comprehensive immigration reform, they could be in a for a major surprise this fall.

In Arizona, the size of the Hispanic population causes a person to assume considerable political risk by taking either a supportive or opposing position on the issue. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has historically enjoyed considerable support within the Hispanic community and has called for comprehensive immigration reform. However, since his failed run for president, he has become a hard-liner calling for deportation and stronger border enforcement. While Hispanics are as concerned about employment and the economy as other Americans, immigration is an issue which can be a determining factor for either party’s success this fall.

Observations on Hearings to Nominate Elena Kagan for the Supreme Court

The recent Supreme Court decision striking down gun control laws in Chicago and its suburb of Oak Park cast a spotlight on the Senate nomination hearing for Elena Kagan who is President Obama’s current nominee for a seat on the Supreme Court. The decision which stated Second Amendment rights to gun ownership extend to state and local governments can have a chilling effect on efforts to curb gun violence in many communities. It also highlights the magnitude of the decisions made by the individuals sitting on the Supreme Court.

As the Senate Judiciary Committee and then, by extension, the Senate deliberate on her nomination, there are a number of issues pertinent for housing and redevelopment professionals to understand as the debate proceeds.

Debate on Qualifications

Republicans are raising concerns about her qualifications since she has never served as a judge. They argue that her work as an attorney was mostly about policy, instead of deciding cases as a judge would. Those opposed to her confirmation will argue that Kagan is a "political activist."

Democratic supporters of the Kagan nomination will argue for Kagan to be confirmed based on her service as solicitor general. In that position, Kagan has been responsible for arguing cases before the Supreme Court. She has also served as dean of Harvard's Law School and held positions in the Clinton Administration.

The larger issue is not qualifications, it is politics. There is no requirement in the Constitution that nominees be judges. Of the 111 judges nominated since 1789, 40 did not have experience as judges (36 percent). These individuals were nominated by both Democrats and Republicans. Attacking the “qualifications” is one way opponents attack a nominee in the hopes of derailing the nomination. is the minority party’s way of trying to defeat the president’s nominee.

Debate over Judicial Philosophy

A second way of attacking a nominee is to gauge their judicial philosophy by reviewing their track record of cases. If a nominee has not been a judge, there is no track record of cases to find out how they will rule from the bench.

Because of the intense scrutiny given to the writings and decisions of a nominee, the practical result is that in order to get the nomination through the Senate, there is an incentive for presidents to choose individuals who have a similar profile to Kagan (talented lawyers and academicians, but not judges with a case record to defend). Speaking broadly, some conservatives believe that decisions of the court are limited to examining what the framers of the Constitution or legislators that enacted the law wrote and applying the terms to the facts of the particular case before them. These "strict constructionists" believe that other judges, who take a broader view of a judge's review, are “judicial activists,” and are improperly expanding the role of the judiciary.

More liberal judges assert that their role is not to just follow the text of the law but also the intent of the legislators and the reasonable inferences of the text.

As an example, “cruel and unusual punishment,” which is prohibited by the Constitution, meant one thing two hundred years ago. However, modern notions of what is “cruel” or what is “usual” have changed. What is a “speedy” trial? What does the “right to bear arms” mean as weapons get more and more sophisticated?

Moreover, it is quite difficult to amend the Constitution. If our notions of justice and equal treatment change over time (as they did with women’s suffrage and civil rights issues), or if technology advances in ways that the framers of the Constitution couldn’t possibly have anticipated (DNA evidence, for example), how should fundamental rights of U.S. citizens be decided?

On the other hand, how can judges, be they conservative or liberal, keep their political and personal opinions out of their decisions and avoid making up the law as they go along? Kagan will be asked to explain her philosophy on these issues.

Confirmation

Since Supreme Court justices serve for life, both sides recognize that the ability to nominate members of the federal judiciary is one of the most powerful aspects of a president's authority. In this particular instance, if Kagan, like Justice Stevens before her, sits on the bench until she is 90, she will be deciding cases until the year 2050.

Opponents of the Kagan nomination understand the stakes, and they are reluctant to let Kagan be confirmed without a fight. There's an old saying: "When you have the votes, you want to vote. When you don't, you want to stall." On the Kagan nomination, the Democrats want to vote.

There is not much serious doubt that Kagan will make it through the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing without a hitch. Kagan’s nomination has been supported by an array of individuals and interest groups, including former First Lady Laura Bush, 68 deans from major law schools around the country, and the American Bar Association.
Unless something surprising happens, it is expected that Kagan will field the questions from the Committee, be as bland as possible, and avoid giving her opponents ammunition. Kagan will likely be confirmed by the full Senate during the month of July.
Republicans will attempt to use Kagan as another example of Obama’s “socialist” agenda in the fall election.

Check back with the Blog for more information on the nomination and key legal issues facing housing professionals.

Interesting Read

The Un-routine Sets Apart Sotomayor's First Term
By Robert Barnes
The Washington Post

As Congress Returns, Series of Tests Awaits
By John Harwood
The New York Times

Unions, Business Lobbies Look to November
By Bennett Roth, CQ-Roll Call
Congressional Quarterly

Obama’s Phoenix Act
By John Heilmann
New Yorker Magazine

Behind US v Arizona pure politics
By Kris W. Kobach
The New York Post

Governors Voice Grave Concerns on Immigration
By Abby Goodnough
The New York Times

Mechanical Failure
By Stephen Spruiell
The National Review

Why Obama Disappoints the Left
By Peter Beinart
The Daily Beast

Is Palin Cranking Up 2012 Campaign?
By John Ellis
RealClearPolitics

GOP takeover could make committee staff member Democrats' 'worst nightmare'
By Mary Ann Akers
The Washington Post

Labor unions pivot toward midterm elections with jobs campaign
By Philip Rucker
The Washington Post

Progressives hope 'One Nation' coalition can recapture grass-roots fervor
By Krissah Thompson
The Washington Post

President Obama's policy time bombs
By Chris Frates & Ben White
Politico

Read more »

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Friday, October 1, 2010

Interesting Reads

Friday, September 24, 2010

Drama Surrounds November Election

Monday, August 23, 2010

Interesting Read

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Interesting Reads

Monday, July 12, 2010

Summer Lays Foundation for Fall Contests

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