Deficit Reduction Reports Hovers over Lame Duck Session

Amidst all of the drama within both parties – Tea Party versus establishment Republicans, liberals versus conservative/moderate Democrats, make no mistake the 800 pound gorilla settling in Washington is the draft report issued by the bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. President Barack Obama creates the commission to seek recommendations on ways to reduce Federal spending and control future deficits.

The Commission, co-chaired by Former Republican Senator Alan Simpson (WY) and Erskine Bowles, the former Chief of Staff to President Bill Clinton, submitted a preliminary report with five basic recommendations:

1. Enact tough discretionary spending caps and provide $200 billion in illustrative domestic and defense savings in 2015.

2. Pass tax reform that dramatically reduces rates, simplifies the code, broadens the base, and reduces the deficit.

3. Address the “Doc Fix” not through deficit spending but through savings from payment reforms, cost-sharing, and malpractice reform, and long-term measures to control health care cost growth.

4. Achieve mandatory savings from farm subsidies, military and civil service retirement.

5. Ensure Social Security solvency for the next 75 years while reducing poverty among seniors.

In issuing the report, the co-chairs did not spare any program or department in the Federal government nor did the commission concern itself with the political ramifications of the recommendations made. For example, it calls for cuts to military, some paring down of the mortgage income deduction, some tax increases and measures to control Social Security benefits.

To no one surprise, it was met with bipartisan denunciation; however, both co-chairs stressed the importance of being honest with the measures needed to control Federal spending and future deficits. The current economic situation, the election results and this report is going to finally force the powers that be in Washington to confront the hard reality of what it will take to turn the nation’s financial situation around.

It is going to be interesting to watch the debate unfold on controlling federal spending. While Republican calls for reduced spending have been focused on domestic programs the truth is ALL federal spending must be curtailed to some degree to contain the spiraling deficits. Both parties are to blame for the deficit and both parties and now must agree to the pain required to fix it.

Housing Budget Unclear

Congress has returned for its lame duck session with a final decision on this year’s Federal budget still unclear. The debate over the future of the Bush tax cuts is generating the bulk of media attention; however, local providers of housing and community development programs still don’t know what their budget will be for next year. While there will be fireworks aplenty, expect Congress to reach an agreements on a number of issues including some type of extension of the Bush tax cuts and a temporary spending measure to keep the Federal government operating through the early part of 2011.

These programs will face an uphill fight next year securing any increases and will likely struggle to maintain current levels. Fiscal conservatives will seek cuts to domestic programs and will probably target public housing dollars. Vouchers will be affected as well; however, private landlords will carry enough sway to keep any cuts to a minimum. During downturns in the economy, landlords like participating in the voucher programs because of the certainty that the government will pay a large portion of the rent. When the economy improves some landlords may be less committed because of the higher rents they can secure in the open market.

Congressional Panel Urges Review of Factors Affecting Foreclosure Crisis

A congressional panel overlooking the mortgage irregularities in the foreclosure process is urging its colleague to review the situation closely to avoid greater damage to the financial markets. Examining the Consequences of Mortgage Irregularities for Financial Stability and Foreclosure Mitigation states that financial institutions and securitization servicers should not proceed with foreclosures unless all of the proper documents are in order.

It has been found that banks are foreclosing properties without proper documentation casting doubts about the legitimacy of the actions. There is uncertainty over whether in some cases banks had the authority to foreclose. This has also raised questions over who has ownership of the loan and the property in question.

The panel calls on policymakers to monitor what is occurring and offered these recommendations:

• The Department of Treasury should closely monitor the impact of foreclosure irregularities.

• Treasury and the Federal Reserve should stress test banks to evaluate their ability to weather a crisis related to mortgage irregularities.

• Policymakers should evaluate system-wide consequences of documentation irregularities.

The panel is concerned that the implications of the confusion of foreclosures could reverberate to banks of all sizes. As disturbing as the potential implications of documentation irregularities may be for “too big to fail” banks, the consequences would not be limited to the largest banks in the market. Other concerns of the panel include not placing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at too much risk to underwrite these mortgages; homeowners losing confidence in the housing market; and, the public may lose faith in due process.

Interesting Reads

Housing and Community Development

GOP targets mortgage bailouts
By Sean Lengell
The Washington Times

Foreclosure takes toll on increasing number of children
By Dina El Boghdady
The Washington Post

Lame-Duck Game of Chicken
By David Broder
The Washington Post

Will Republicans Get Serious on Spending?
By Steve Chapman
The Chicago Tribune

Guns used to kill police officers: Where they come from and how they get in the hands of criminals
By Cheryl W. Thompson
The Washington Post

Politics

A Forecast That Obama Could Love
By Jeff Sommer
The New York Times

Obama Returns to an Unpredictable Congress
By Jackie Calmes and David M. Herszenhorn
The New York Times

Sober suggestions from Obama's debt commission
By David Broder
The Washington Post

Five myths about Sarah Palin
By Matthew Continetti
The Washington Post

The Palin Network
By Robert Draper
The New York Times Magazine

Political divide between coasts and Midwest deepening, midterm election analysis shows
By T.W. Farnam
The Washington Post

Romney, Weighing Run, Leans on State PACs
By Michael Luo
The New York Times

Murkowski victory a stinging rebuke to Palin and extreme partisans
By John P. Avlon
CNN Contributor

Junior Democrats in Senate seek to change the way chamber does business
By Shailagh Murray
The Washington Post

Truth or Consequences
By Evan Thomas
Newsweek

Read more »

On to the Next Round

The election is over and now both Republicans and Democrats will chart a course over the next two years with the intent to win the 2012 presidential elections. Since only one side can win the ultimate prize, the White House, drama will take center stage in Washington, DC. Here is what we know about the election:

The Republicans elected in both the House and Senate are more fiscally conservative than their predecessors and are chomping at the bit for a show down with President Barack Obama to reduce Federal spending. Republicans in both chambers are talking tough about cutting non-defense programs to the 2008 levels. Republicans have been soliciting recommendations from the public on which programs to cut. The site, America Speaking Out, allows citizens to recommend where they would like to see funding cut. The recommendations from citizens will only strengthen their resolve to reduce federal spending.

Republicans must assess how to incorporate these conservatives into a broader agenda which achieves substantive results. If they can accomplish that, they set the stage for their party presidential nominee to have a chance at victory in the 2012 presidential election. It will not be easy. Pursuing a balance budget agenda will be difficult for Republicans to accomplish if only domestic programs are under consideration for reduction. To truly reduce federal spending, there is a consensus that cuts to defense spending, Medicare and Social Security must be included. These are popular programs with strong voting constituencies who have historically punished politicians who broach cuts to these programs. However, some Republicans, such as Senator-elect Ron Paul (R-KY), have said those are on the table for discussion. This can become a dicey issue for Republicans to navigate and could be their Waterloo.

Republicans increased their numbers in the Senate to be major players in any legislative initiative up for discussion in that chamber. If consensus can’t be reached on issues in the Senate, gridlock will occur. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Senate Minority Leader, has stated the Republicans number one agenda is to ensure Obama does not get reelected. That does set the stage for compromise; it only sharpens the ideological divide.

The remaining Democrats in the House and Senate are more liberal as a whole. Many of the party’s losses were in districts held by conservative Democrats. This reduces the number of “moderate” members willing to compromise with Republicans on issues. It also limits the number of Democrats Republicans can target for support on issues such as reducing federal spending. We can expect Democrats to now become the united opposition Republicans were over the last two years.

Republicans gained enough governor seats and captured state legislatures to reshape the future congressional map, increase the likelihood Republicans will maintain their current numbers in Congress and make the president’s road to reelection a bumpier one. Governors are heavily involved in the redistricting process in most states. Expect future Congress’ to be more conservative. Additionally, in controlling the political operations in their state, Republican governors can create structural barriers to deliver benefits to voters and campaign effectively. The changing demographics in many states also illustrate the difficult path Obama must follow to get reelected. States Obama carried in 2008 stand to lose seven seats in the House meaning there will be fewer electoral votes available in those states.

What does this mean?

Legislative action will be the exception while gridlock will be the rule. The political and philosophical make up of each party in Congress creates a bad mix for compromise. Tea Party conservatives are adamant about reducing federal spending and are willing to buck the party leadership to accomplish that goal. They are equally adamant about not compromising with Obama. Any sign of compromise by the Republican leadership will be met with revolt from these individuals. The House Republican leadership has more leeway to not compromise; however, Republicans can’t be viewed by the voters as obstructionist. They need substantive accomplishments to have any credibility and sustain momentum going into the 2012 election. The Senate is the chamber where compromise must be reached but it is unlikely either party will be able to reach consensus on fiscal issues. With all eyes focused on the 2012 presidential election, the ability and/or failure to compromise is risky for both parties.

Funding for existing programs will be reduced or eliminated. Funding for new initiatives is probably unrealistic unless it enjoys strong bipartisan support. The election results demonstrated the American public is not supportive of increased federal funding for new initiatives when the economy is faulting, jobs are being lost and homes are being foreclosed. Any initiative undertaken must focus on economic growth and will probably come at the expense of other programs. President Obama’s support of a three-year freeze on domestic spending and his willingness to seek further cuts leaves little room for negotiation if defense, Social Security and Medicare are not on the table. Even if they are included, other programs will bear a disproportionate burden of cuts due to the popularity of the big three program.

Expect an increase in demand for services provided by the government, nonprofits, churches and other private groups. Until the economy improves the demand for services will increase with fewer resources to provide those services. More people will need assistance to offset long-term job loss, foreclosure, underemployment, health care needs and other unforeseen situations. When Obama took office most economic experts did not expect the economy to turn around until 2012 at the earliest. But when the economy does improve a combination factors will likely keep wages down. First, fewer jobs will be available. As a result, it will continue to be a buyer’s market. In other words, there will be more workers than the number of available jobs. Older workers who lost their retirement money need to remain in the workforce for an extended period of time. Second, the level of internet purchasing will reduce the need for retail employment which is typically the entry point for young and low-skilled workers and increasing a source of income for the elderly. Third, housing prices will remain deflated reducing the principle vehicle used to create wealth in this country.


What can be done in the interim?

Organizations dependent on government and private funding will need to reevaluate its operations and make hard decisions about structure and scope of services. These groups must decide if portions of its work should continue as is, be consolidated with another program or be eliminated. For nonprofits, in particular, this will be a difficult task. Nonprofits are mission driven; however, economic pressures will force them to make these choices. Demands will increase while available revenue will probably continue to decrease.

The fundraising model currently employed by non-profits in particular needs to be revisited. During a time of fiscal austerity, groups which can demonstrate tangible results will increase the group’s chances of securing support from funders. It will be critical for nonprofits to work with existing funding sources to identify ways in which it can remain attractive to private funders. Nonprofits and public entities that can successfully demonstrate its recipients, or clients, are achieving self-sufficiency as a result of its programs will prove to be more successful in the future.

Look for funding formulas for state and local governments to be revisited as well. The Census will cause the government to revisit how funds are distributed. Deeper targeting of the resources meant to low and moderate income households could be both good and bad to entities serving these households. Changes to funding formulas could create strange bedfellows in certain parts of the country.

Interesting Read

For Obama, the daunting challenges of 2012 start at once
After a tough midterm election, the president must focus on righting the economy and recovering the voting coalition he has lost if he hopes to avoid becoming a one-term president.
By Peter Nicholas and Christi Parsons,
Los Angeles Times

Republicans prepare to take power
By Jake Sherman & Richard E. Cohen
Politico

The Republican Landslide
By Fred Barnes
The Weekly Standard

Fasten Your Seat Belts: Campaign 2012 Is Here
By Jim O'Sullivan
National Journal

Why? Why? Why?
Was it a referendum? A plunge after a surge? A search for political balance? Yep.
By Charlie Cook
National Journal

Wave gives GOP upper hand in drawing election map
GOP enjoys big gains in Great Lakes region as redistricting begins
By Tom Curry
MSNBC

Republicans signal a hard-line stance after election success
By Tom Cohen
CNN

Hispanics emerge as key 2012 wild card
By Ben Smith & Carrie Budoff Brown
Politico

The Mama Grizzly Scorecard
by Shushannah Walshe
The Daily Beast

Republicans tear up President Obama's map
By Ben Smith & Jonathan Martin
Politico

People

The rise and fall of Nancy Pelosi
By John Bresnahan
Politico

John Boehner inherits troubled House
By Richard E. Cohen
Politico

Mitch McConnell's power expands greatly in minority
By Manu Raju
Politico

5 myths about George W. Bush
By Julian Zelizer
The Washington Post

Don't underestimate Palin for 2012 run
By Ed Rollins
CNN

DeMint: 'I Think I've Found My Role'
National Journal

Bachmann to Seek GOP Conference Chair
The Minnesota Republican and tea party favorite says she will challenge the leadership's choice.
By Billy House
National Journal

Read more »

One Chapter Ends, Another Begins

The drama surrounding the current election season will come to a close November 2nd and the ensuing results will usher in the next chapter of our country’s political history. Beyond the numbers, time will tell which political party, which individuals and which movement was victorious. However, for the country to expect anything less than more partisanship is naïve and unrealistic.

Post-Election Partisanship

The partisanship will begin the moment the results are tallied. If predictions are correct, history will stay true to form and the party of the president in power, Democrats, will suffer losses. The size and severity of those losses are debatable at this time. The estimate of Democratic losses in the House of Representatives ranges from 40 to 75. It is possible, but unlikely, Republicans will gain the 10 seats necessary to control the Senate but it is not unrealistic for them to gain as many as eight seats. One of those seats could be the one held by Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) the current Senate Majority Leader.

Posturing will begin the minute the polls close. Republicans will make it clear they intend to put a halt to or delay any of President Barack Obama’s initiatives. Fireworks will begin to fly during the congressional lame duck session which is expected to begin approximately a week after the election. Among the issues to be debated during that session is the extension of the Bush tax cuts, extending unemployment benefits and passing a 2011 budget for federal agencies. Republicans will use this session to flex their muscle and lay the groundwork for next year’s congressional session.

Gridlock will be the rule not the exception

Don’t expect much congressional action next year or during the early months of 2012. Make no mistake, beginning November 3rd every political action is geared to building momentum for Democrats to keep or for Republicans to reclaim, the White House. Nothing will come easy for either party as each tries to exert its will on the other.

In victory, the Republicans will have more to lose than the president. They contend to know how to right the ship they helped steer aground. They will no longer be able to simply be obstructionist but must become legislators. In legislating they will need to compromise which may not sit well the increased number of “true” conservatives, including Tea Party candidates, expected to march into office. There is enough infighting within the party to cause trouble for itself as it navigates an agenda for the next year or two. Realistically, Congress will have 2011 and the first three to four months of 2012 to enact legislative initiatives. In the spring of 2012 presidential campaigning will be in full swing.

The country will learn a great deal about President Obama’s leadership abilities, his toughness and political astuteness in the next 12 to 15 months. How he handles himself will determine his prospects for reelection. If he handles himself well, he will have the party behind him heading into the reelection campaign of 2012. If not, he will likely be challenged from within the party.

State Elections are Where the Action Is

Keep your eyes on the state elections. The party in control of the statehouse will heavy influence the political representation of that state for the next 10 years. The future composition of Congress and the federal largess enjoyed by congressional districts hang in the balance of these elections.

Interesting Read

Late Senate polls show GOP trending up slightly
By Aaron Blake
The Washington Post

Spin cycle: What will top Dems say?
By Alexander Burns & Jonathan Martin
Politico

The Five Faulty Theories that Led Obama and Democrats to Disaster
By Fred Barnes
The Weekly Standard

The Next Two Years
By William Kristol
The Weekly Standard

Next for GOP leaders: Stopping Sarah Palin
By Mike Allen & Jim Vandehei
Politico

Sarah Palin: Thin-skinned, smartly strategic (or both)?
By Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post

Read more »

Leading up to the election, AVIEWFROMDC will provide its readers with some articles of interest about the election:

2010 Election

GOP poised to win redistricting supremacy, too
Down-ticket races could dilute Democrats' influence for next 10 years
By Jennifer C. Kerr
The Associated Press

The stimulus worked — but for which party?
'The failed stimulus' has become a Republican mantra this election season
By Tom Curry
MSNBC National affairs writer

Election Day could bring historic split: Democrats lose House, keep Senate
By Karen Tumulty
The Washington Post

Tea Party Already Shapes '12 Race
By Peter Wallsten
The Wall Street Journal

Gauging the scope of the tea party movement in America
By Amy Gardner
The Washington Post

Tea party groups say media has been fair, poll shows
By Amy Gardner
The Washington Post

Yes, They Can
By Charles Dharapak
Associated Press

In Nevada, it's can't live with Harry Reid and can't live without him
By Shailagh Murray
The Washington Post

Pro-Republican Groups Prepare Big Push at End of Races
By Jim Rutenberg
The New York Times

The rise, fall and rise of John Boehner
By Paul Kane
The Washington Post

Post 2010 Election

Can GOP leaders keep the peace?
By Jake Sherman
Politico

2012: How Sarah Barracuda Becomes President
Why do you think Barack Obama is being so nice to Michael Bloomberg?
By John Heilemann
New York Magazine

Obama’s Playbook After Nov. 2
By Sheryl Gaystolerb
The New York Times

Q&A With Newt Gingrich
By Peter Wallsten
The Wall Street Journal

Group Plans to Keep Pressure on Newly Elected Conservatives
By Jennifer Levitz and Douglas A. Blackmon
The New York Times

Read more »

Election Outcome Still in Doubt

With the election fast approaching, its outcome, and the subsequent political climate of the nation, is still in doubt. While the specific results are yet to be determined, there are still some predictions we can make about the aftermath of November 2, 2010.

1. There will be a number of surprises on Election Day. Expect the unexpected.

2. Whichever party “wins” November 2, it will overplay the significance of its victory. Historically, the party of the president in office loses congressional seats in the first mid-term elections. The fact of the loss is almost certain. What is not known is how big the loss will be.

3. Very little will be accomplished in Congress as Republicans seek to weaken President Barack Obama in the attempt to reclaim the White House in 2012.

4. The most significant results of the elections on the state level will be the real story of November. The party in power in the statehouse controls the process to redistrict congressional seats. That party also can influence voting patterns in presidential elections. In swing states like California, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Florida, controlling the governorship could prove beneficial in 2012.

Here are some observations to keep in mind as we draw closer to Election Day:

Democrats: It is estimated that 100 House Democratic incumbents are at risk of losing their election. Prognosticators estimate that Democrats will in fact lose from 45 to 75 of those seats and, therefore, Republicans will win control of the House. There is a chance Democrats will retain control of the House but, if that occurs, they will retain it by a small margin. It is unlikely that Democrats will lose control of the Senate but their margin will diminish by as many as seven or eight seats.

It appears the traditional Democratic constituency, unions, women, minorities and liberals, are becoming more engaged in this election cycle which gives the party some hope it can minimize its losses. The Associated Press is reporting that in some states Democrats have submitted more early ballots than Republicans. In Iowa, Maryland, North Carolina, Louisiana, and in Nevada’s Clark County (where two-thirds of the votes in 2008 originated) Democrats have the lead.
Is it too late for Democrats? It may be but it is still too early to tell and a lot can happen between now and Election Day. After the election, President Obama will need to develop a strategy to lead his party against a Republican Party smelling blood.

Republicans: Republicans are confident of a resounding victory this November. They are so confident that current House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) is promising choice committee assignments to candidates to help boost their election prospects. Republicans are not only confident they will take control of the House but also functional control of the Senate. They are already developing strategies to confront the White House with subpoenas, hearings, proposals to cut funding for the health care bill, etc.

The Republican Party needs to be careful not to repeat the strategy of the House under the leadership of Newt Gingrich which led to the shutting down of the government. That strategy turned the public against the Republicans and eventually led to Gingrich’s downfall. They do need to temper their confidence. There is a chance Democrats will either retain control of the House or lose the House by a slight margin. Anything less than a resounding victory will punch a hole in the sails of Republicans.

Tea Party candidates: Assuming they win their elections, they will be a problem for Republicans specifically, and the Congress generally. They will be forced to turn the anger that elected them into a governing style that actually accomplishes something substantively. They can be elected in sizeable numbers to continue to force Republicans to the right. How their approach translates into a governing style will be interesting to watch. Until then, there is the real possibility that their candidates will implode on the campaign trail. Sharon Angle, Christine O’Donnell, Ron Paul and Joe Miller have each stumbled badly on the campaign trail.

State Races: This is the real story of the election. Republicans are poised to make major gains in gubernatorial races. The party controlling the statehouse has the power to influence, approve or veto redistricting plans which don’t meet its satisfaction. The reshaping of congressional seats helps to determine who is elected to the House of Representatives.

Nick Ayers, executive director of the National Republican Governors, told CNN redistricting could result in 15 to 20 House seats changing parties. He told CNN that his message to Republicans is, "The only way to prevent Democrats from controlling an unfair process is to win the governors' seats where redistricting is up."

Keep an eye on Proposition 20 in California. This ballot initiative, if approved, would remove elected representatives from being involved in the redistricting process. California has historically been known as a “bell weather” state, meaning what happens in that state tends to reverberate to other parts of the country.

2010 Census: The results of the 2010 census, while technically not an issue on Election Day, is a major factor hanging over the state races. The census results will influence redistricting decisions. Some states, like Pennsylvania and New York, are expected to lose congressional seats. The party in power will seek to redraw lines with the intent to protect its own, but the loss of one congressional seat could mean a reduction of millions of Federal dollars to that state.

Also, don’t be surprised if there is a significant increase of Latinos in states where Hispanic representation has been historically low. Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Education Fund, said he believes the story of the 2010 census will be the rise of the Latino South.

Economic issues: The economy, tax cuts, earmarks, reducing the deficit and the cost of health care will dominate the discussion of the new Congress. It will likely result in gridlock the next two years. The campaign rhetoric will be over and the elected officials will finally have to govern. Expect political realities to influence congressional decisions. For example, as much as some Republicans are calling an end to earmarks, congressional members of both parties realize the importance of “bringing home the bacon.” Most economic experts expect the economy to rebound in 2012 which will help President Obama in his reelection campaign.

Latino voters: Keep an eye on the Latino (Hispanic) vote. All indications are that unions, African Americans and liberals are getting motivated to go to the polls; however, the mainstream media has made assumptions that Latinos will stay home because of the failure of the administration to pass immigration reform. Vargas has criticized a recent ad in Nevada calling for Latinos not to vote. Vargas said Latino voters are fully engaged and prepared to assert itself in November.

Latino Vote expected to grow 17 percent in November

Nearly one million new Latino voters are expected to participate in this year’s midterm election representing a 17 percent increase above the total that voted in the 2006 midterm election, according to a report released October 19 in Washington, DC.

The NALEO Educational Fund estimates that 6.5 million Latinos will vote this November. Vargas states that Latinos are fully engaged this election cycle in spite of reports in the mainstream media indicating Hispanics will not vote in large numbers this fall.

“The Latino vote is fully engaged and ready to vote,” said Vargas. “Our polling and outreach shows Latinos voting participation will likely surpass our projections.” The NALEO Educational Fund is the nation's leading non-partisan, non-profit organization that facilitates full Latino participation in the American political process, from citizenship to public service.

Vargas said Latinos have been receiving the bulk of their information from Spanish-language media which is more involved in reporting the issues of concern to Latinos than the mainstream media. Vargas’ group has partnered with a number of other organizations to launch a campaign to get 250,000 low propensity voters to become engaged and vote. The campaign consists of national Latino advocacy organizations, leading Spanish-language media partners, and local community based organizations (CBOs). They are committed to increasing Latino participation using a multi-layered approach. They are reaching out by utilizing the Spanish-language media, nonprofits, the internet, etc.

Vargas expects Latinos to have a significant impact in a number of races. He said that in races for the U.S. House of Representatives, the number of Latinos in Congress could increase by as many as three:

• Washington State, Representative Jaime Herrera (R) is currently running ahead in her bid
for that state’s 3rd congressional district, and could become the first Hispanic of either major
party to represent the Evergreen State in Congress.

• In Florida, the seat held by U.S. Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart (R) in the 25th congressional district
could become a win for the Democrats if former Obama administration official Joe García
wins his bid. That race is currently a toss-up.

• In Texas, businessman Bill Flores (R) is locked in a very tight race with Rep. Chet Edwards
(D) in the 17th congressional district.

Vargas also pointed to one of the nation’s most closely watched contests for Senate in Florida which includes a Latino candidate:

• Former Florida Speaker of the House Marco Rubio (R) is locked in a tight, three-way race
with Governor Charlie Crist (I) and U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) to fill the seat once held
by retired Sen. Mel Martínez (R). Latinos represent almost 13% of registered voters in the
Sunshine State, and are a key constituency in this closely watched race.

In statewide races, Latinos are running in several of the most competitive races in the country.

• In New Mexico, Doña Ana County (Las Cruces) District Attorney Susana Martínez (R) is in
a close race with Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) in the gubernatorial race.

• In Nevada, federal judge and former Nevada Attorney General Brian Sandoval (R) is running
ahead of Clark County Commission Chair Rory Reid (D) and could become the state’s first
Latino governor.

Vargas further states that Latino candidates running for state Senate and state Houses nationwide are expected to make gains; nine seats in the state upper chambers (from 65 to 74) and five in the state lower chambers (from 179 to 184). Latinos are running for top positions in 41 states throughout the nation – which shows political progress in both the traditional Latino population centers, and in regions with emerging Latino communities. In this year’s election -- both as candidates and as voters -- Latinos are poised to play a key role in shaping the nation’s political landscape.

NBC Identifies Potential Leaders in Light of Republican Victory on Election Day

MSNBC’s First Read took a look at the Republican men and women who would likely assume the leadership positions and committee gavels if Republicans take back the House. The leadership, per NBC’s Luke Russert reporting, is expected to be the following:

Speaker: John Boehner (R-OH)

Majority leader: Eric Cantor (R-VA)
Majority whip: Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) or Pete Sessions (R-TX) GOP conference chair: Mike Pence (R-IN) GOP conference vice-chair: Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (R-WA) NRCC chair: Sessions or McCarthy

The men and women who would be House GOP chairs: And, per NBC’s Russert, here are the people who are likely to become the committee chairs:

Appropriations: Harold Rogers (R-KY) or Jerry Lewis (R-CA) Armed Services: Buck McKeon (R-CA)
Budget: Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Education and Labor: John Kline (R-MN)
Energy and Commerce: Fred Upton (R-MI) or John Shimkus (R-IL) Financial Services: Spencer Bachus (R-AL), Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), or Ed Royce (R-CA) Foreign Affairs: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) Homeland Security: Peter King (R-NY)
Judiciary: Lamar Smith (R-TX)
Oversight and Government Reform: Darrell Issa (R-CA)
Rules: David Dreier (R-CA)
Standards of Official Conduct/Ethics: Jo Bonner (R-AL) Transportation and Infrastructure: John Mica (R-FL) Ways and Means: Dave Camp (R-MI)

If Republicans win back the Senate in November, NBC’s Ken Strickland has put together this list of the likely GOP Senate leadership:

Majority leader: Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Assistant majority leader (whip): Jon Kyl (R-AZ) Conference chair: Lamar Alexander (R-TN) Conference vice-chair: John Barrasso (R-WY) Policy committee chair: John Thune (R-SD) NRSC chair: John Cornyn (R-TX) President pro tempore: Dick Lugar (R-IN)

The men and women who would be Senate GOP chairs: And, per NBC’s Ken Strickland, here are the likely GOP Senate chairs:

Appropriations: Thad Cochran (R-MS)
Armed Services: John McCain (R-AZ)
Banking: Richard Shelby (R-AL)
Budget: Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Commerce: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)
Energy and Natural Resources: Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) or Richard Burr (R-NC) Environment and Public Works: Jim Inhofe (R-OK)
Finance: Chuck Grassley (R-IA)
Foreign Relations: Dick Lugar (R-IN)
Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions: Mike Enzi (R-WY)
Judiciary: Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
Homeland Security and Government Affairs: Susan Collins (R-ME)


Interesting Read

2010 Election

Election Day could bring historic split: Democrats lose House, keep Senate
By Karen Tumulty
The Washington Post

More Democrats casting early ballots
By Nancy Benac and Liz Sidoti
Associated Press

The early vote: Signs of GOP passion
By Molly Ball
Politico

The new political map: Welcome to 2004
By Jonathan Martin & Alex Isenstadt
Politico

Every big Senate race just got closer
By Alexander Burns
Politico

Barack Obama struggles to win women back
By Carol E. Lee & Glenn Thrush
Politico

Democrats face power struggle
By Manu Raju
Politico

Five governors races to watch
By Chris Cilliza
The Washington Post

Hispanic organizers don't see Democrats' funding
By Carrie Budoff Brown
Politico

How GOP could win the 10 seats needed to take back Senate
By Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post

Can Democrats and Republicans work together after the election?
By Tom Cohen
CNN

Black Turnout Will Be Crucial for Democrats on Election Day
By Kevin Sack
The Washington Post

The landscape as the final midterm sprint begins
By Dan Balz
The Washington Post

GOP poised for big election gains
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Black voters may be just as engaged as they were in 2008, polls show
By Krissah Thompson and Nia-Malika Henderson
The New York Times

Tea Party Set to Win Enough Races for Wide Influence
By Kate Zernike
The New York Times

Why Business Doesn't Trust the Tea Party
By Lisa Lerer and John McCormick
Bloomberg Business Week

In Wisconsin, the 2010 campaign story distilled
By Jim Vandehei
Politico

Democrats fear wipeout for women
By Marin Cogan
Politico

GOP Tries to Capitalize on Expanding House Field
By John McArdle
CQ-Roll Call

Year of the missing candidate
By Jonathan Martin
Politics

People of 2010 Election

President Obama’s white working-class problem
By Glenn Thrush
Politico

Education of a President
By Peter Baker
The New York Times Magazine

Boehner’s Path to Power Began in Southern Ohio
By Jennifer Steinhauer and Carl Hulse
The New York Times

Five myths about Sarah Palin
By Matthew Continetti
The Washington Post

Bond With Past Foe Is Fodder for Attack on Cuomo
By David M. Halbfinger
The New York Times

Newt Gingrich’s rhetoric will backfire
By Joe Scarborough
Politico

State Elections

The Sweep: Governors' races are 'main event' in 2010
By Jessica Yellin
CNN

Housing and Community Development

Looking Ahead
BY Jacob Gaffney
Housingwire Magazine

As G.O.P. Seeks Spending Cuts, Details Are Scarce
By David M. Herszenhorn
The New York Times

Florida community feels ripple effects as paperwork issues stall foreclosures
By Brady Dennis
The Washington Post

From This House, a National Foreclosure Freeze
By David Streitfield
The New York Times

Lack of proper mortgage paper trail could leave big banks reeling again
By Ariana Eunjung Cha and Jia Lynn Yang
The Washington Post

The Political Rumble Over Public Pension Costs
By Ben Elgin, Chad Terhune, Christopher Palmeri and Dunstan McNichol
Bloomberg Business Week

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