Friday, June 24, 2011

Deficit Drama Continues, Impact on Budget Still Uncertain

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s decision to abruptly leave the deficit reduction talks throws another wrench into bipartisan efforts to reach a compromise on reducing federal spending. Republicans hard line on any tax increases or elimination of tax loopholes will make it extremely difficult to reach an agreement before the deadline to raise the nation’s debt limit.

If the Republicans are successful, domestic programs, including affordable housing programs are at risk of deep reductions over the next several years. Talks seemed to be progressing to the point where budget parameters for the next few years were coming into sharper focus. However, Cantor’s action and the Republican’s insistence on receiving a pledge from the president pretty much ensures an agreement will not be reached by the deadline.

The fact that some Members of Congress have expressed an interest in passing a temporary extension is an indication both parties realize while there is some progress being made, and that more time is needed. As budget pressures build, don’t be surprised if fewer groups express a reasonable position on deficit reduction like the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP). AARP stated they would accept reductions in benefits for future retirees until they received push back from Democrats and others.

There simply are too many competing and powerful interests groups yielding too much influence on negotiators. The pressure is squarely on the president. He is feeling the heat from Republicans and Democrats to submit a deficit reduction plan as a condition to having the ceiling raised. He needs to take the lead but not appear to be to pressure from Republic ans.

Republicans are operating from a position of strength For affordable housing programs, this is not a good sign for a number of reasons:

First, federal affordable housing programs have broad but shallow support in Congress and very little support among the general public. Public housing and the Section 8 voucher programs are not popular in local communities. In this political and economic environment, unpopular government programs will be the first targets of budget hawks. Even within the affordable housing community, it will be hard for broad coalitions to stick together when decisions are made about cutting programmatic budgets. At some point, self-interest will take over and the least popular programs will suffer.

Second, any efforts to spruce up the housing market will be targeted to homeownership. While it is becoming harder to own a home with tightening purchasing requirements, homeownership is still a strong indicator of economic progress. If the economy falters, housing production falters, if housing production falters fewer jobs and less upward mobility. In the eyes of too many important people, homeownership is more important to the overall economy than rental housing. When decisions are made about funding housing initiatives, homeownership initiatives will receive priority.

Third, the traditional message which said programs such as the Public Housing Capital Fund, HOME or CDBG are job creators, while technically correct, does not carry the same weight as it did in the past. Local governments are so overwhelmed job creation is only one concern. Cities and counties are getting squeezed top to bottom. From the top they are losing federal funds to address specific concerns. The economy has had negative consequences on families which means local politicians risk losing elections if they raise local taxes. There is not enough revenue to preserve existing jobs, create new ones and meet an array of fiscal obligations. At the United States Conference of Mayors (USCM) meeting in Baltimore, the mayors called for an end to the wars and a redistribution of those resources to local governments. It is not going to happen. Local governments will be squeezed further and in most communities public housing will suffer the most.

The message needs to change dramatically. In 1995, the National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials (NAHRO) did, in fact, change the discussion on affordable housing in a dramatic way. The organization called for block granting housing programs and eliminating the Brooke Amendment. NAHRO’s bold step jolted the affordable housing community. By taking the position and calling for the restructuring of housing programs, the decision broadened NAHRO’s political support across both sides of the aisle while forcing legislators, administrators and advocates to rethink how these programs are structured and administered.

NAHRO’s proposals were controversial but the subsequent discussion led to the passage of the Quality Housing and Work Responsibility Act of 1998. Unfortunately, the Clinton Administration used its regulatory powers to neuter some of the flexibility provided housing administrators that was in the legislation. Nevertheless, NAHRO’s action is an example of the kind of initiative needed to reshape debate on public housing and do so in a constructive way.

Affordable housing groups need to hire a public relations firm that has the pulse on what Americans will support. Housing programs are slow, expensive and in no-win situations. If the property looks too nice, citizens feel it is a waste of taxpayer dollars on “undeserving” families. If it is not properly maintained, it is a waste of taxpayer dollars. The message must be about people not places. Many years ago NAHRO had ads in its magazine which highlighted the people served in public housing. A variation of that message needs to be the foundation of advocacy efforts.

Without a change in message, affordable housing is facing deep cuts from which some programs may never recover. Look at the groups screaming the loudest: farmer subsidy supporters, defense hawks, protectors of food and children nutritional and food programs. Housing groups cannot compete with them without a compelling argument which puts them, at minimum, at the table when decisions are made.


Interesting Read

Debt talks: Democrat Kent Conrad, Senate budget chair, says $2 trillion not enough
By Lori Montgomery and Rosalind S. Helderman
The Washington Post

Deficit talks in danger as Eric Cantor bails
By David Rogers
Politico

GOP's bold gamble on deficit talks
By David Rogers
Politico

Can Boehner play dealmaker on debt talks?
By Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
Politico

Obama’s dilemma on the debt-limit talks
The Washington Post
By Michael Gerson

Democrats fret over White House dealmaking
By Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
Politico

CBO: Debt could grow to double GDP
By David Rogers
Politico

AARP expects Social Security benefit cuts
By Jeanne Sahad
CNN Money

AARP Move on Social Security Could Help Avoid a Train Wreck
By David Gergen
CNN

Conservatives’ spending pledge
By Emily Miller
The Washington Times

Housing and Community Development

White House’s Daley seeks balance in outreach meeting with manufacturers
By Peter Wallsten and and Jia Lynn Yang
The Washington Post

The Indiana Exception? Yes, but...
By Michael Powell and Monica Davey
The New York Times

Eclipsed
Why the white working class is the most alienated and pessimistic group in American society.

by Ronald Brownstein
The National Journal

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Thursday, May 26, 2011

The Road to Reelection Got Smoother for Obama

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels’ decision to forego a White House bid has increased the likelihood President Barack Obama will be reelected for a second term. Recognizing a lot can occur between now and November 2012, it appears the only thing that can truly sink the president’s reelection bid is a down economy.

Each of the remaining high-profile candidates mentioned - New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush - may attract Republican support but will have a difficult time unseating the president if the economy is on the upswing. None of the current candidates or prospective candidates generates excitement among the party faithful. If they have difficulty energizing their own party faithful, it is hard to imagine they will win the hearts and mind of independents and other voters.

The president must take advantage of the mistake made by Republicans who proposed cuts to Medicare without fully vetting the public’s appetite for such reductions. The cuts to Medicare proposed by House Budget Chair Paul Ryan (R-WI) have not been well received and have put Republicans on the defensive. Now is the time for the president to push aggressively for a budget which preserves his priority programs while painting the Republicans as out of step with everyday Americans.

By not offering the recommendations of the deficit commission, the president has allowed himself to enter the partisan fray. He must step back and appear “presidential” as he did during the lame duck session last year. The pressure is not on Obama but on Republicans to come up with a reasonable number for a budget agreement.

Republicans will continue to paint the president as a “big-spending, socialist”; however, they realize how vulnerable they will be in 2012 with an uninspiring candidate, a proposal to radically change Medicare (which even Tea Party faithful do not want to see cut) and possibly being held responsible for the nation defaulting on its obligations if an agreement is not reached in extending the debt limit.

The budget discussions are the foundation for next year’s elections. A bi-partisan budget agreement does not help Republicans next year. Republicans need issues like the economy and Federal spending to be the focus of voter’s attention not the president himself. Focusing on specific issues versus the president will eliminate any risk of appearing overtly or covertly racist. Donald Trump’s unsuccessful attempt to question the president’s academic credentials is a prime example of how attacks on the president can quickly deteriorate.

If a reasonable budget agreement is reached, the president stays above the political fray, the economy shows signs of life and all other things being equal, Obama will be hard to defeat.

NLC Releases Financial Tool Kit for Elected Officials
Link
The National League of Cities released a tool kit for municipal officials to assist families which are “unbanked” and “underbanked” to access traditional financial institutions. The toolkit is part of NLC’s Bank On Cities Campaign which is designed to help local leaders connect low- and moderate-income residents to mainstream financial services to avoid high-cost check-cashers, predatory lenders and other costly alternative financial services.

Interesting Read

Parties are still $1T apart on domestic spending
By David Rogers
Politico

Have Democrats cracked the code for 2012?
By Alexander Burns
Politico

Gang of 5/6 tries to salvage work
By Meredith Shiner
Politico

Will Republicans learn the lesson of NY-26 loss?
By Dan Balz
The Washington Post

The Wish List: Taking a Hard Look at Republicans Not in the Presidential Scrum
By Alex Roarty
National Journal

Stimulus price tag once again lurches higher
By Stephen Dinan
The Washington Times

Stimulus recipients found to be tax cheats
By Stephen Dinan
The Washington Times

The Elephant in the Green Room
By Gabriel Sherman
New York Magazine

If I Take Down Fox, Is All Forgiven?
By Jason Zengerle
New York Magazine

Friday, May 20, 2011

Deficit Talks Not Good for Housing

Sen. Tom Coburn’s decision to withdraw from talks by the “Gang of Six” does not bode well for advocates hoping to stall cuts to federal housing programs. Coburn was part of a group of senators hoping to reach bipartisan agreement on a deficit reduction plan that could win broad congressional approval. Coburn’s decision to remove himself from those discussions makes reaching an agreement harder. As a result, the politics of deficit reduction will overshadow any substantive discussion that could occur.

President Barack Obama’s decision not to accept the recommendations of the deficit commission he empaneled as the starting point for these discussions has led to a more complicated, highly political process leaving Federal programs ripe for attacks. The deficit commission recommendations were easily approved in a bipartisan fashion after sparing no program from assuming a portion of the responsibility to reduce the federal deficit. This gave every politician in Washington the political version of a flak jacket when approaching sensitive issues like tax increases, cuts to entitlement programs and the defense budget. The commission members understood the need for broad action to reign in Federal spending. Their support for a series of hard choices demonstrated a bipartisan consensus on difficult issues could be reached.

Obama unwisely went in a different direction. The result was a contentious debate on the FY 2011 budget that went down to the wire and a more difficult set of negotiations with catastrophic consequences if an agreement is not reached. The more contentious these discussions the more likely “poorly administered” agencies will bear the brunt of cuts.

Anticipating cuts to its programs as a result of the discussions, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is beginning to distance itself from some of the local decision-making within local agencies. First, it is going make the salaries of housing agency directors more accessible to the public. These records are already a matter of public record but highlighting these salaries only adds fuel to the public’s discontent with government workers. It will lead to calls to reduce spending and salaries for public officials.

Second, HUD’s response to a series of articles in The Washington Post which questioned the management of funds administered through the HOME Investment Partnership program was to blame local decision-making. HUD said it has no control over how funds are administered. Mercedes Marquez, HUD’s assistant secretary for community planning and development, told The Washington Post, “this is what comes with having the flexibility of a block grant, where you respect local decisions.”

Now Members of Congress are calling for a review of HUD’s program. It does not come at a good time. The House Appropriations Committee releases its funding parameters for FY 2012 and housing programs are facing an overall reduction of 14 percent. Denial is the safest card for the department to play. If Republicans target HUD for deeper cuts, department officials can point to poor programmatic local decision-making as the culprit.

Republicans have aggressively argued additional cuts must accompany any increase to the nation’s debt limit. While no one truly expects Congress to allow the U.S. government to default on its obligations, the hard-line tactics worked effectively before an agreement on a FY 2011 budget was reached and a government shutdown was averted. The stakes are much greater now and the consequences too catastrophic for some to contemplate; however, there is a segment within congressional Republicans who would be happy to allow the deadline to pass without an agreement.

The seriousness posed by defaulting gives the president the slight edge in these negotiations. As long as he submits modest cuts during these negotiations, he places the burden on Republicans to move from their hardline stance or cause calamity. The increased scrutiny of HUD and the local officials will continue to put housing agencies on the defensive.

Interesting Read

Members of Congress call for probe of HUD’s HOME affordable-housing program
By Debbie Cenziper
The Washington Post

A trail of stalled or abandoned HUD projects
By Debbie Cenziper and Jonathan Mummolo
The Washington Post

Speculators score, District loses in affordable-housing deal
By Debbie Cenziper
The Washington Post

LinkUS: Philly housing agency overpaid for shoddy work; audit questions $127M in stimulus spending
By Associated Press
The Washington Post

Budget surplus to deficit: How we got here
By David Rogers
Politico

Can loan modification fix housing?
By Christipher Papagianis
Politico

Neo-Voodoo Economics
By Jim Tankersley and Michael Hirsh
The National Journal

Friday, May 6, 2011

New Strategy Required

Congress returns from its spring recess to begin further discussions on a FY 2012 budget that includes concrete provisions to reduce Federal spending. In exchange for support for increasing the debt limit, Members of Congress from both parties are pressuring the White House and congressional leadership to agree to a spending plan that addresses deficit reduction in a real way.

For local housing providers receiving Federal funds, both the politics and the economics of the deficit reduction discussions means fewer funds in spite of efforts to garner congressional support for Federal programs. During the congressional recess, national groups have galvanized their members to express dismay over the cuts approved in the FY 2011 budget agreement and their opposition to further cuts in the FY 2012 budget. While these efforts are necessary they will prove fruitless and frustrating.

The White House and the congressional leadership of both parties have already conceptually agreed Federal spending should be reduced. Vice President Joe Biden has begun the first of a series of meetings with congressional Republicans and Democrats designed to reach an accord on deficit spending prior to the deadline to raise the debt limit. The decision by the House Republican leadership not to pursue changes to Medicare increases the likelihood that the framework of an agreement can be reached.

Meeting parallel to the Biden group is the “Gang of Six” – a bipartisan collection of senators committed to reaching an agreement on deficit reduction that could serve as a template for all parties to support. This group comprises Democrats Dick Durbin of Illinois, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, and Mark Warner of Virginia and Republicans Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, Saxby Chambliss of Georgia, and Mike Crapo of Idaho.

Why does this matter? The bipartisan effort to reduce spending leaves housing advocates with few “back room” supporters to champion their concerns. The cuts to programs are inevitable. There are two fundamental questions housing providers need to determine: how deep will the cuts be? How to respond to these cuts?

It is difficult to answer for certainty the first question; however, one can look to the cuts agreed to in the FY 2011 budget to get an idea of what programs will be targeted. For example, public housing was cut more deeply than other programs within the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) while tenant-based vouchers received an increase. Vouchers have received strong support because it gives the recipient an opportunity to “choose” where to live. As discussions for next year’s budget proceed, it is safe to estimate public housing funds will remain static at best or bear the brunt of further reductions.

This leads to the second question: how to respond to these cuts? It is in the industry’s best interest to more aggressively pursue regulatory and legislative changes to fundamentally change how public housing is funding and administered. There are efforts to reduce the administrative and regulatory burden of small agencies (those with less than 500 units) being pursued by the Public Housing Authorities Directors Association (PHADA) and the National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials (NAHRO). They are joined by the Council of Large Public Housing Agencies (CLPHA) to expand the Moving-to-work program which allows housing authorities to combine their funding allocation and dispense the resources in a way which meets local need. These groups are also in discussion with HUD to identify regulatory and administrative changes to ease the burden on local agencies.

All of these efforts are important but they will only succeed if advocates for these program confront the political and economic reality – cuts combined with spending freezes means there must be out-of-the-box thinking if these programs are going to continue to provide a service to those in need.

Multigenerational Housing Increasing

The American Association of Retired People (AARP) Public Policy Institute recently released a report which showed an increase in the number of multigenerational households residing in the United States. The number increased from 6.2 million in 2008 to 7.1 million in 2010. There were 5 million multigenerational households in 2000.

The report cites an analysis by the Pew Research Center which states that one in five adults between the ages of 25 to 34 live in multigenerational households. Hispanics, African-Americans and Asians are more likely to live in multigenerational households than whites.


Interesting Read


Medicare fight exposes House GOP’s internal rifts
By David Rogers
Politico

Lawmaker Proposes Federal Hiring Freeze
By Emily Long
GovExec.com

Waiting Game
By Charlie Cook
National Journal

The Cook Report: Taking On Obama
By Charlie Cook
National Journal

 
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