2008 Election: State Polls Matter Most

In August the Democratic and Republican parties will hold their conventions to formally confirm Senators Barack Obama and John McCain as their respective presidential nominees. Each candidate will also have formally announced his running mate in the hopes it will create excitement among their supporters and a “bounce” in the polls as the final push to the White House begins. Many national polls will be taken offering snap shots of which candidate is leading at that moment in time. However it is our advice to readers of aviewfromdc to be cautious in placing too much emphasis on the national polls.

Observers should focus their attention on state polls to get a true gauge of the race’s final result. For months national polls indicated Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic nomination. Her campaign continually pointed to these opinion polls to indicate she was the strongest candidate to win the presidency for the Democrats. However, state polls offered a different assessment and ultimately her campaigned failed for a number of reasons, one of which was the failure to pay close attention to state polls.

To help guide you through the election season we listed some resources which offer some of the best information to track the presidential election.

1. Wikipedia has a great summary of the presidential election; it summarizes the candidates from all of the political parties and leads to excellent information about national and state polling. It also provides an interesting summary of the battleground states as well. A little known movement is described which could impact future elections. It is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. This compact calls for states to award its electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state.

2. Realclearpolitics is a great web site for all things election including a daily listing of some of the best articles and editorials on the election.

3. The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics includes Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball which features analyses of presidential races, Senate, House and gubernatorial races.

McCain Housing Position

The web site www.VoteGopher.com contains information concerning John McCain’s housing position. According to the site, McCain supports the creation of a Federal Housing Authority "HOME" Plan, which would make it easier for low-income Americans to secure affordable loans in place of the "burdensome mortgages" that cause them financial strain. He has also promised to create a Mortgage Abuse Task Force through the Justice Department, which would investigate criminal activity in the mortgage industry and assist state Attorneys General in uncovering and punishing abusive lending practices.

He also supports a plan to let homeowners struggling to pay adjustable rate sub prime mortgages switch to a 30-year fixed rate mortgage backed by the government. People will be eligible for this plan if they bought a sub prime mortgage after 2005 for their primary residence while they were creditworthy, but cannot pay the mortgage now. If homeowners with the government-backed mortgage see their houses appreciate in value and sell them, they keep a third of the profit and the other two-thirds are split between lenders and the federal government. McCain has also called for the creation of a "Mortgage Abuse Task Force" to investigate the industry.

Potential Senate VP Candidate's positions on housing and community development programs

Aviewfromdc has reviewed the voting record of various senators under consideration for the position of vice president. The voting record was compiled by the National Association of Housing and Redevelopment Officials (NAHRO) Included are the voting records of John McCain and Barack Obama. There is a guide which explains each legislation voted on by each member.

Of the Democratic senators mentioned as potential vice presidential candidates: Jack Reed (RI), Hillary Clinton (NY), Joe Biden (Del), Evan Bayh (IN) and Chris Dodd (CT) each voted on all the positions recommended by NAHRO when they were present to vote. Independent Joseph Lieberman (CT) also had a perfect record. Lieberman is mentioned as a possible candidate for John McCain. Republican Chuck Hagel (NE), considered a long shot to be selected by Obama as his running mate, voted for two appropriations bill consistent with the NAHRO position out of the nine listed. Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison voted for three measures along the lines recommended by NAHRO.

Interesting reads

Housing Bill Won't 'Perform Miracles'
Senate Approves Measure, but Critics Say Law Unlikely to Prevent Most Foreclosures
By Lori Montgomery and Paul Kane, Washington Post Staff Writers

Hill Budget Chief Weighs Odds, Cost Of Rescue Plan, Fannie, Freddie Could Need $100 Billion or Not a Cent by Lori Montgomery and David S. Hilzenrath, Washington Post Staff Writers

The Fannie and Freddie Follies Spare the rod, spoil the child by Lawrence B. Lindsey

No sign yet of a bottom in home prices; Rising foreclosures, big new-home inventory push recovery into next year. Analysis by John W. Schoen, Senior Producer, MSNBC

To Fight Poverty, Tear Down HUD by Sudhir Venkatesh

McCain Makes Significant Gains in Four Key Battleground States
Majority of Voters in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Favor Keeping Troops in Iraq, According to Quinnipiac-washingtonpost.com-Wall Street Journal Survey
By Chris Cillizza, washingtonpost.com staff writer

Could an Obama presidency hurt black Americans? By John Blake, CNN