Cuomo and Lazio Headed for Showdown in New York Governor’s Race

Current New York State Attorney General, Andrew Cuomo, and former congressman, Rick Lazio, are headed for a showdown this fall to become Governor of New York State. The inevitable showdown materialized after current governor, David Patterson, decided not to seek election for a full term. Patterson was the sitting Lieutenant Governor when then Governor Elliot Spitzer resigned in scandal. Patterson was appointed governor after Spitzer’s resignation.

Cuomo, the former Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), is the son of former governor Mario Cuomo. He has not officially announced his candidacy; however, it has been a foregone conclusion he will run for governor.

Lazio is a former Republican congressman from Long Island who chaired the House Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity for six years. He helped write the Quality Housing and Work Responsibility Act of 1998 which sought to overhaul public housing laws.

Lazio has been discouraged by some leading Republican figures in the state to forego his pursuit of the governor’s seat and instead challenge New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D). She is seen as a vulnerable candidate even though she has the backing of her party’s state and national leadership including President Barack Obama. Early polling shows Cuomo beating Lazio or any other potential opponent handily.

Latest Projection Calls for Significant Republican Gains in November

A new analysis by The Center for Politics is predicting Republicans can make enough gains in the fall elections to potentially reclaim control of the House of Representatives.

The analysis, the second completed in two weeks by The Center, predicts Republicans will pick up 37 seats in the House leaving it three short of the number needed to take control of the lower chamber based. The Center utilizes two different methods of analysis to make this prediction. The first includes an analysis of each individual district and making estimates based in a review of polling data, past election results, a review of the opinions of highly regarded individuals in each district and other relevant data. Based on that first analysis, the Center predicted a net gain of 27 seats.

The latest analysis is considered a more accurate predictor of the congressional races. The author is Professor Alan Abramowitz of Emory University. He uses a regression analysis which includes the following four factors:

1. The president’s net approval rating according to the latest Gallup Polls.

2. Looking at the results of generic ballot questions in the Gallup Polls.

3. He includes a dummy variable which is a plus or negative factor in mid-term year elections, plus for Democrats and negative for Republicans.

4. The number of seats held by Republicans.

The first two variables are fluid during an election while the last two are “fixed” as the election progresses. Abramowitz bases his analysis on the normal tendencies of voters to react against the party controlling the White House in the middle of the president’s first term. Additionally, he said Democrats have a large number of seats to defend because they have gain approximately 50 seats in the last two election cycles.

The Center for Politics is a nonpartisan unit of the University of Virginia started by Larry Sabato which seeks to promote the value of politics and the importance of civic engagement. It strives to encourage citizens to actively participate in the political process and government; evaluate and promote the best practices in civic education for students of all age; and, educate citizens through the Center's comprehensive research, programs, and publications. Dr. Sabato is the University Professor of Politics and director of the center which was founded in 1998. He is the author of over 20 books and countless essays on politics and has taught more than 14,000 students in his career at Oxford University, Cambridge University, and the University of Virginia. He is widely regarded as one of the most accurate prognosticators of election results in the country.

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