Immmigration Moves Front and Center

This is the third in a series of articles on issues which will affect the November election. Today we look at immigration.

The decision by Arizona Governor Jan Brewer to sign legislation which allows state and local law enforcement officials to detain anyone who “appears” to be in the United States illegally has thrust immigration into the forefront of the national debate. On the heels of a divisive debate on health care, immigration appears to be the next contentious issue President Obama and the Democratic Party will address this summer.

The president promised during his campaign that he would pass comprehensive immigration reform within his first year in office. Democrats, concerned about the potential to suffer significant losses this November, have decided to pursue immigration reform this year in the hope that it will motivate Hispanic voters turn out in large numbers this fall.

A report released last month states the Hispanic vote can have a dramatic effect on 40 state and congressional races in the 2010 mid-term election. The report, The Power of the Latino Vote in the 2010 Election, also states immigration will be a major issue to the Hispanic voter. According to the Census, New Mexico is 44 percent Hispanic, Texas and California each are 36 percent Hispanic. Every state with high concentrations of Hispanic voters will see registrations for the elections soar. On a national basis, Hispanic residents were 9 percent of the country's population in 1990, 12.5 percent in 2000, and over 15 percent in 2007. One of every two people added to the nation's population between 2006 and 2007 were Hispanic. While the economy, health care and education are important to members of the Hispanic community, passage of comprehensive immigration reform is considered a litmus test on how committed the president and the Democratic Party are to their concerns.

Lydia Camarillo, Vice President of the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project (SVREP) in an interview with A View from DC in March said the grassroots is very angry and feels the president has not kept his promise of enacting immigration reform which prompted many Latinos to vote for him in the fall of 2008. Camarillo said Latinos will not be satisfied with simply introduction of a bill, she says Latinos want a comprehensive bill passed.

“There are no excuses,” she said. “Democrats are in control and should be able to pass something.”

Republicans see risk and reward in immigration legislation. They believe it is an inopportune time to discuss immigration reform when the economy is the number one issue facing the country. Failing to address these economic issues, they believe, heightens their prospects this fall. However, there is the risk they will be perceived as anti-Hispanic and could alienate the fastest growing segment of the nation’s voting population.

In an editorial in the March 19 edition of the Washington Post, Sens. Charles E. Schumer (D-NY) and Lindsey O. Graham (R-SC) summarized the basic elements of comprehensive immigration reform legislation they hope will generate bipartisan support.

Their proposal will require the creation of a biometric Social Security card to ensure that illegal workers cannot get jobs; fulfill and strengthen the nation’s commitment to border security and interior enforcement; create a process for admitting temporary workers; and implement a tough but fair path to legalization for those already here.

Graham recently threatened to withdraw his support for reform if Democrats insist on proceeding on this issue at the expense of another key issue: climate change. The House Democratic leadership said they will move on immigration reform after they receive a Senate-passed bill. Democrats are privately saying they do not have the votes to pass a bill but are willing to make the effort and make the Republicans appear the villain when it fails.

Camarillo said Hispanics may withhold support for Democrats in the fall if immigration reform is not passed. That strategy doesn’t sit well with a long-term time advocate for immigration reform.

Arnoldo S. Torres, a political consultant based in Sacramento, California, does not believe that strategy will help.

“How is that helping their efforts,” he said. “They need to elect more progressive people in the next two to four years who will work toward passing reform. For them to say it is okay for moderate Democrats or conservative Republicans to get elected who aren’t going to vote for what they want contradicts their objective to get reform passed. It really is an empty threat and not a well thought out idea.”

He doesn’t believe many Hispanic advocates are interested in solving the problem and stopping the flow of immigrants but getting more Hispanics registered to vote for Democrats
Torres was the Director of the Washington office of the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) in the late seventies and early eighties and was instrumental in writing and helping to pass the Immigration Reform and Control Act (ICMA) of 1986. That was the last time Congress passed comprehensive immigration reform.

ICMA sought to address the same issues currently under debate:

1. It made it illegal to knowingly hire or recruit illegal immigrants (immigrants who do not possess lawful work authorization);

2. Required employers to attest to their employees' immigration status;

3. Granted amnesty to certain illegal immigrants who entered the United States before January 1, 1982 ; and,

4. Granted a path towards legalization to certain agricultural seasonal workers and immigrants who had been continuously and illegally present in the United States since January 1, 1982.

Torres said lessons from that legislation have not been learned. He said our immigration policy has never fully addressed the two key factors that influence immigration. First, there is the “push” factor. There is insufficient economic development occurring in the countries of origin of the immigrants. In his view, trade agreements open markets for US goods but keep the US markets closed to foreign products. Therefore, there are few economic opportunities in those countries to prevent migration to the US. He said the “pull” factor is the second issue not address. This is where US businesses offer work opportunities which are low-paying by US standards but are better than the prospects immigrants have in their home countries.

What is the answer?

That is hard to say. As Torres stated the Schumer-Graham proposal is a political response to a complicated issue. Without addressing the “push” factor Torres talked about, we will have this discussion again in 20 years. Plus, if politics defeats any reasonable solutions the status quo will only get worse. The response by Republican hardliners to immigration reform which includes a path to legalization is causing the party to be viewed as hostile to Hispanics. While the perception of Republicans by Hispanics is not as bad as the perception which exists in the African American community, it is heading in that direction. Republicans are not likely to increase their numbers significantly within the Hispanic community; however, more Hispanics can find comfort under their tent that African Americans.

What does this mean for housing?

The composition of the next Congress will determine the type of funding and policies affordable housing providers can expect over the next two years. A more conservative Congress is likely to reign in spending. A liberal Congress will attempt to increase funding for social programs. Immigration reform can potentially motivate Hispanic voters to participate this November and will likely vote for Democrats.

Here are a few thoughts to keep in mind:

1. Congress will take on immigration reform this year. With the signing of the Arizona law, Obama now has a call to action, a reason for taking it off the back burner and moving it to the front. Had the Arizona bill been vetoed, the urgency of reform would have been defused. Neither party is itching for this fight. This is an issue the winner can lose for winning.

2. Immigration and the economy will focus voter attention more than health care reform. As contentious as health care reform is as an issue, it pales in comparison to the historical, social and emotional weight that immigration carries. It will be divisive. Expect the debate to be heated.

3. Immigration will more strongly motivate the Republican Party base and Tea Party advocates to vote this November. Just as the Arizona law is galvanizing proponents for reform, a path to legalization or citizenship is galvanizing the Republican base and the Tea Party. For Democrats, Arizona gave them an early Christmas present. The Arizona bill is the easy get-out-the-vote cry for Hispanic voters. If the Hispanic voting population gets energized, the tea party’s electoral power will be put to the test. As reflected in the Census data cited above, there could be drastic effects in every election throughout the southwest, and enough swing voters in other areas that Congressional races could be decided on the immigration issue alone.

4. Opposition to a path to legalization is not universally opposed by some of the Republican Party’s natural constituents. For example, the US Chamber of Commerce (USCC) supports comprehensive reform which includes a path to legalization, while the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) which represents small businesses, does not. While there will be a great deal of pressure on Democrats in conservative districts, Republican lawmakers will also be under tremendous pressure from competing supporters within their party.

5. Immigration reform can be a key unifying civil rights issue for 2010. Hispanics of all backgrounds, Asians and African-Americans, each have shared experiences of racial profiling by police officers. Many police departments, to their credit, have worked hard to develop trust within these communities. If the Arizona law gains momentum in other states, that trust can evaporate and create hostilities which can adversely affect communities. Housing advocates may find different groups and new players in the public arena. There may be opportunities for coalition building, grassroots organizing and networking that simply weren't present in previous years. Stay up to date on immigration reform as this issue is debated in the near future.

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