The Fall Election Part One: Uncertainty Continues to Surround the Fall Election

During last week’s post we listed a series of issues which will affect the November election and provided an outline of action steps we believe the affordable housing community must undertake to prepare itself for the future. This week we look at the traditional mid-term losses faced by a first-term president and discuss its implications for affordable housing advocates.

Barack Obama’s first year and a half in office has not been without drama:

1. He inherited one of the most challenging economic periods of our country’s history;

2. Nominated the first Hispanic to the Supreme Court;

3. Decided to expand our presence in Afghanistan;

4. Saw the seat of the late Senator Ted Kennedy fall to a Republican resulting in Democrats losing their filibuster-proof majority in the Senate;

5. After a bruising and time-consuming fight was able to pass health care reform which was tried unsuccessfully by previous president’s for 100 years;

6. Has endured a highly vocal and confrontational opposition to his efforts by “Tea Party” activists;

7. Dissatisfaction by his liberal Democratic base; and,

8. He faced unanimous opposition by the Republican Party on health care and other initiatives.

Now he must lead his party through the mid-term election. Historically, the party of the incumbent president loses seats in the ensuring mid-term election. The fundamental question facing Obama is not whether Democrats lose seats, but how many. Since the health care debate heated up, the president’s popularity has dipped below 50 percent which could portend trouble for Democrats this fall.

Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia’s Center on Politics is predicting Republicans will gain seven seats in the Senate, 27 in the House of Representatives and will likely win at least seven gubernatorial races. The expected gains in the House and Senate will not give Republicans majority status in Congress but will give them greater leverage and influence on legislative matters and Supreme Court appointments.

Alfred Cuzan, writing for the Center on Politics Crystal Ball, correlates the president’s approval rating against the number of seats his party is expected to lose in the fall election. He reviewed the approval ratings of past Presidents Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter entering their midterm election and posed the question: is Obama another Reagan or Carter? His analysis suggests the more unpopular the president the more likely his party will lose seats in the next fall election. Cuzan determined his model indicates Obama’s approval rating will continue to decline which could be a bad omen for Democrats this fall. However, Cuzan acknowledged that Reagan benefited from a recovering economy after suffering loses in his midterm election while Carter endured a struggling economy which included high interest rates and high unemployment.

So where does this leave Obama and Democrats? Right now, on the defensive. There are so many factors which come to play this summer leading into the fall. Here are three to watch closely:

1. The economy. The administration indicated the most recent jobs numbers reflect an economy on the rebound. Republicans disagree. A recovering economy will help the president and Democrats this fall.

2. Immigration. The administration is under tremendous pressure by Hispanics to enact comprehensive immigration reform which includes a path to citizenship for undocumented workers. Many Republicans, including Tea Party activists, are adamantly opposed to what they call “amnesty”. This is an issue which will motivate the bases of both parties, although Republicans can damage themselves long-term with Hispanic voters if they are viewed as “hostile” towards immigrants.

3. The Supreme Court nomination process. This can invigorate the bases of both parties. Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens’ decision to retire creates another opportunity for the president to nominate a replacement. Stevens’ timing so close to the contentious health care has the potential to be just as volatile. Supreme Court Justices serve for life and Republicans are not eager to allow Obama to appoint a “liberal” to the bench.

In the House races, many of the seats gained by Democrats in the last two election cycles were in districts which leaned Republican. In 40 of those districts, voters voted for President George W. Bush in 2004 and half of the voters in those districts voted for John McCain in 2008. It is not unreasonable to assume a majority of those districts will return into the hands of the Republican candidate.

The Senate is a bit more unpredictable. No one would have predicted the seat of the late Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy would fall into the hands of a Republican. Delaware was considered a safe Democratic seat until the vice president’s son, Beau Biden, decided not to run for office. Now it appears a Republican, the moderate Mike Castle, will win that seat. The fall elections are so unpredictable, there are some experts suggesting the solidly Democratic State of California may elect one of Senator Barbara Boxer’s (D) Republican challengers to replace her.

While a great deal of attention is focused on the congressional elections, the gubernatorial races could significantly shape Congress for the future. According to the Center for Politics, there are 23 states with no incumbents running for governor, including the big states of California, New York, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. New York and Pennsylvania are expected to lose seats after the Census Bureau has completed its tally of the 2010 Census. Congressional maps will be redrawn as a result of the census results and the party in power will control that process. Historically, redistricting has been a vehicle for the party in power to protect its members while punishing the opposing party.

What should affordable housing advocates do next? Here are our suggestions:

1. Learn from the Tea Party. Grassroots organizing and education are critical to ensure your concerns are reflected by candidates.

2. Make sure you educate all of your constituents, workers, etc., on the importance of sending back in Census forms and what it means to your community. (We will discuss the Census in greater detail in a future posting.)

3. Although you likely cannot tell others how to vote, make sure to tell them to vote and why it is important.

4. Solidify your relationships now with businesses, churches, non-profits and other groups and see what common ground exists politically.

5. As you are discussing issues, be sure to listen. Ask residents and other groups what is important to them. You may be surprised at what you learn.

6. Rehearse your elevator speech now. Be prepared to tell both elected officials and candidates who you are and why your concerns matter. Let them know that you are not just a housing advocate, but a person that represents a block of voters, and tell them how many.

7. Remember, elected officials, for all of their talk of service, are most interested in themselves. That’s why they are putting up with all of the headaches of running for office. Therefore, find common ground. If you went to the same college, use that to your advantage. If their play children play soccer and your do too, find an artful way to mention soccer when you talk to them.

8. Be fair in your criticism and praise of your elected official. Research until you find at least one vote on which the incumbent did something right, and thank them for it.

9. Treat Republicans like Democrats and vice versa. Advocates simply can’t assume they will receive support or opposition from their congressional representative.

10. There is a fine line between being persistent and a pain in the rear. Strike the right balance between being a pest and being a professional.

11. Know your issues well enough so that you can express your concerns in a way that is meaningful to the incumbent.

12. Take the time to educate candidates on the work you are doing in the community. If the incumbent is never with you on any issues, try as hard as you can to get someone else elected.

13. Remember all politics is local. National member groups, by their nature, do not have the focus to assist much with the issues that may be in play in your district or state. Therefore, strike a careful balance between your local concerns and support of national issues.

Next week’s posting will focus on the economy.


Interesting Read

Housing and Community Development

Economy has shifted Americans' attitudes about homeownership and money
By Sadie Dingfelder
Special to the Washington Post

Renting isn't reckless if you're not ready for homeownership
By Michelle Singletary
The Washington Post

Foreclosures create opportunities in Prince George's, Md.
By Ovetta Wiggins
The Washington Post

Thousands May Lose Rental Vouchers
By Cara Buckley
New York Times

The Invisible Underclass
By Eugene Robinson
The Washington Post

Faith in homeownership drops, Fannie Mae poll shows
By Renae Merle
The Washington Post

Baltimore takes a holistic approach to unhealthy housing
By Eliza Barclay
The Washington Post

Obama to meet at the White House with black church leaders
By Hamil R. Harris and Krissah Thompson
The Washington Post

Politics

A census sign that the Tea Party is less than it seems
By Dana Milbank
The Washington Post

Republicans focus efforts on November, say 2012 can wait
By Dan Balz
The Washington Post

Of Swans and Spoilers
Heading toward Election Day, Democrats won't be getting much help on the jobs front.
By Charlie Cook
The National Journal

Hispanics skeptical that Obama, Democrats will deliver immigration overhaul
By Sandhya Somashekar
The Washington Post

Anger over health-care reform spurs rise in threats against Congress members
By Sari Horwitz and Ben Pershing
The Washington Post

Five ways Michael Steele could come back
By Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post

Read more »

Summer Action Could Turn Up the Heat for Housing Advocates this Fall and Beyond

The debate surrounding passage of health care reform illustrated how intense the partisan divide is in Washington, DC and underscores the growing importance of the November mid-term election. The level of the disagreement reminds many political veterans of the events leading up to the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. The epithets, death threats, spitting incidents and threats of violence against individuals and the Federal government who supported the legislation have dominated the media in the past few weeks.

Opponents of President Barack Obama’s health care plan, particularly those who are part of the Tea Party movement, have vowed to take their fight to the ballot box this November. They promised to punish Democrats who voted for Obama’s health care plan. Tea Party groups and others are targeting those Democrats elected in Congressional districts won by Sen. John McCain in his failed 2008 presidential bid.

The fervor surrounding the health care debate should be a wake up call to housing and community development advocates leading into, and going beyond, the fall election. A number of issues are going to influence the election results to varying degrees. They include:

1. The typical mid-year losses that the party of a new president endures;

2. The economy; an economic upswing bodes well for Democrats if an economic upswing occurs. The jury is still out whether the economy will really pick up in time to make a difference in November.;

3. The various constituency groups with a point to make this fall;

4. Cash; more specifically the Supreme Court decision on corporate and union spending on elections; and,

5. The anger associated with the passage of health care legislation;

Each of these influences are pieces to a broader puzzle to determine how much and what type of Federal resources will be available to low-income households. How the puzzle is put together will determine the level of financial assistance to individuals, families and the agencies serving this population and the kind of initiatives to help these families achieve economic self-sufficiency.

What do the political changes mean for those administering local housing and community development programs? Are there action steps local advocates and administrators can take to position themselves favorably regardless of the results of November’s elections?

In the coming weeks A View from DC will look at some of the factors affecting November’s election and offer our recommendations on the steps needed by advocates in 2011 and beyond. Here is an outline of our recommendations:

1. Job creation is not the only measurement of a growing economy and should be viewed with caution by local communities. Local groups should also take the time to more fully understand the internet’s impact on the economy and on the future earning potential of low income individuals and households.

2. The census. Working with the Census Bureau is going to be critical to ensure as many individuals in low-income communities are counted particularly immigrants from Asia, Africa and Latin America.

3. National membership organizations need to develop regional strategies to meet the needs of their constituents. Redistricting will create winners and losers which will result in the need for different political strategies to address the implications these changes will bring to localities. A broad national approach to accommodate the resulting changes will be insufficient.

4. It is important to learn the key lesson from the Tea Party movement - it all begins with the grassroots. Greater emphasis needs to be placed on local organizing efforts.

5. There appears to be a consensus among political experts that Republicans will make significant gains in November. It is important to develop a strategy now to work with elected officials before they become entrenched in Washington politics.

6. Advocates need to revise their message and take advantage of the anti-Washington sentiment in the country. Advocates who are members of national organizations need to be more judicious in using their political capital.

7. Traditional job training programs and skill development for low-income individuals need to be reevaluated and other forms of training need to be explored.

8. Local groups, particularly housing authorities, need to better utilize the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and other financial tools to generate additional resources for themselves and their residents.

9. Without an element of teaching financial literacy and wealth creation to low-income households, any future progress will be short-lived.


More than 30 million US Households Receive Inadequate Banking Services

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) released data this winter which documented that more than 30 million households in the United States are either unbanked or underbanked. According to the data, 25.6 percent of the population does not receive adequate financial services. It is estimated that the total number of adults in these households is 60 million.

Included in the findings:

1. The Southern Region has the highest incidences of underbanked households.
2. A large percentage of black, American Indian/Alaskan and Hispanic households are unbanked or underbanked.
3. Approximately five million households which are banked may be underbanked as well.

The survey, FDIC National Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked Households, collected a variety of data by sponsoring a supplemental survey to the Current Population Survey (CPS) administered by the US Bureau of the Census. The survey sought to identify more reliable data number and types of households in the United States which are unbanked or underbanked.

For purposes of the survey, unbanked households did not have anyone with a checking or savings account. Underbanked households contain an adult with either a checking or savings account but who also uses other financial services like check cashing establishments, non-bank money orders, payday loans, or pawn shops at least once or twice a year.

The data revealed the following characteristics of unbanked households:

1. They are more likely to be single-head of household with women comprising a higher percentage of these households versus men. Women comprised 20 percent of this population while men comprised 14.9 percent of the population.

2. Blacks, American Indians/ Alaskans and Hispanics are more likely to be unbanked than Asians and whites.

3. More low-income households are unbanked with those earning less than $30,000 comprising the overwhelming majority (71 percent) of low-income, unbanked households.

4. As age and education increases, the unbanked percentage decreases.

5. Over 40 percent do not believe they will open a bank account in the future.

6. Two-thirds of this population uses alternative financial services such check cashing establishments.

The underbanked share many of the characteristics of the unbanked population:

1. This population is more likely to be single head of household; however, the difference between females and males is only one percent. Approximately 28 percent of female headed households are underbanked versus 27 percent for male head of household.

2. Blacks, American Indians/Alaskans and Hispanics are also more likely to be underbanked versus Asians and whites.

3. Money orders and check cashing services are the two most popular alternative financial services used by this population. Convenience is the principal reason given for utilizing these services.

4. The underbanked rates decline as education and age increases but the rates are similar in the $30,000 to $50,000 range as it is for those earning less than $30,000.

The report concludes there is an opportunity for the government and the financial industry to provide a service to a significant portion of the US population. It does not offer recommendation on how to provide that service.

Hispanic Coalition Issues Interim Immigration Report Card

A coalition of Hispanic organizations released an interim report which is critical of the lack of support for “progressive immigration” reform as reflected in their votes on related matters.

The National Latino Congreso (NLC) issued the Immigrant Justice Report Card Interim Progress Report Card which looked at how Members voted and/or supported immigration-related legislation in the 110th and 111th Congress. The report looked at 15 Senate votes, four Senate bills, seven House votes and 10 House bills.

The report concluded that in spite of strong national support for “progressive immigration reform”, most members of the House of Representatives have records which favor
anti-immigrant measure” while Senators are slightly more inclined to support “pro-immigrant” reform. NLC says 53 percent of House members are pro-immigration reform while 67 percent of the Senators have similar views.

According to the organization’s tally, approximately 41 percent of House members with a large number of immigrants in their district tend to support what NLC calls “anti-immigrant” measure. In the Senate, approximately 26 percent of the senators support similar measures.

Congressional action on immigration reform is expected to be a major factor in determining the level of support candidates running for office this fall will receive from Hispanic voters. Many of the organizations represented by NLC have called for action on immigration reform this year and have stated they will not be satisfied unless legislation is passed.

The National Latino Congreso has brought together Latinos from all walks of life- from grassroots community members to national elected officials- to create a united Latino agenda on a variety of issues. The National Latino Congreso is convened by the Hispanic Federation (HF), League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund (MALDEF), the Mexican American Political Association (MAPA), the National Alliance of Latin American and Caribbean Communities (NALACC), the National Day Labor Organizing Network (NDLON), the National Hispanic Environmental Council (NHEC), Southwest Voter Registration Education Project (SVREP), and the William C. Velasquez Institute (WCVI).

Interesting Read

Politics

RNC chairman defends stewardship of party affairs
The Associated Press

RNC Chief of Staff Ken McKay resigns
By Philip Rucker and Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post

GOP chairman Michael Steele is out front, attracting detractors
By Philip Rucker and Amy Gardner
The Washington Post

Democrats pull in more cash for campaigns than GOP
By R. Jeffrey Smith
The Washington Post

Quarter of Republicans Think Obama May Be the Anti-Christ
Live Science

Assessing John Thune's 2012 chances
By Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post

5 Reasons Why Romney's Political Career Isn't Dead
By Marc Ambinder
The Atlantic

Hamstrung by Health Care
Two Ways to Lose a House Majority
Rhodes Cook,
Crystal Ball

Parties Scrap for Governors’ Seats to Gain Handle on Redistricting
By Bob Benenson
Congressional Quarterly

GOP Senate contest heats up in Arizona
By George F. Will
The Washington Post


Housing and Community Development

Americans rebuild for the 'new urban century'
By John Blake
CNN

Foreclosure fund gets $600 million to help residents of 5 more states save homes
By Renae Merle
The Washington Post

Obama administration announces effort to slash mortgages for unemployed borrowers
By Renae Merle and Dina ElBoghdady
The Washington Post

Census caught in anger toward Washington
Officials worry low response rate is a form of protest
By Richard S. Dunham and Meredith Simons
The Houston Chronicle

Read more »

Hispanics Set to Grade Candidates on Litmus Test this Fall

A leading analyst on Hispanic voting patterns said immigration reform will be to Latinos what choice is to women – a litmus test for Members of Congress in this fall election. For those members

Lydia Camarillo, Vice President of the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project (SVREP) told A View from DC in a wide ranging interview that a member’s position on immigration reform will have a big say on the support he or she receives from Latino voters. She said Gray Davis, former Republican Governor of California, would still be governor if he did not renege on his promise to support immigration reform. James G. “Gray” Davis was the Democratic Governor of California from 1999 until he was removed in a recall election in 2003.

She said the grassroots is very angry and feels the president has not kept his promise of enacting immigration reform which prompted many Latinos to vote for him in the fall of 2008. Camarillo said Latinos will not be satisfied with simply introduction of a bill, she says Latinos want a comprehensive bill passed.

“There are no excuses,” she said. “Democrats are in control and should be able to pass something.”

She said Latinos are not the swing voters as some might surmise but are a pretty reliable vote for Democrats although the intensity of their vote may vary state-to-state. She said 67 percent voted for President Obama which is significant because Latinos, on average, are a young electorate. The average age of the Latino electorate is 22 years old and is likely to vote along the lines of their parents. She said there is no gender or generation gap within the Latino community.

She said because of the closeness of various races in November, the Latino vote can have a significant impact on the election’s outcome. She said any effort to pass a punitive immigration bill will not please the Latino electorate. She said the health care debate has ignited the anger within the Latino community because of a provision which prevents undocumented immigrants from purchasing health care even if they have the resources to do so.

“The president won by such a large margin the Latino vote is not appreciated as much,” she said. “If he won by a closer margin, Latinos would be call saviors.”

She said the census will have a huge impact on future elections. She said the Latino community continues to grow in spite of being undercounted by a third in the last census. She said the census count will be of particular importance in states with large Hispanic populations which are expected to gain congressional seats such as Utah, Colorado, Arizona and Texas.

SVREP's mission is to empower Latinos and other minorities by increasing their participation in the American democratic process. They do this by strengthening the capacity, experience and skills of Latino leaders, networks, and organizations through programs that consistently train, organize, finance, development, expand and mobilize Latino leaders and voters around an agenda that reflects their values. Thus, SVREP's motto: "Su Voto Es Su Voz" (Your Vote is Your Voice).


Credit Unions Fail to Meet Needs of Low Income Households

A report released by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition found that credit unions are failing to meet the needs of low income households. As a result, NCRC is calling for the Federal government to require credit unions to comply with reporting and investing requirements as specified in the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) http://www.ffiec.gov/cra/.

"Credit Unions: True To Their Mission Part II" looked at data to measure how credit unions fared in offering services to low income households as compared to mainstream banks. The findings in the report indicated that mainstream banks performed better in offering services as measured by fair lending indicators than credit unions which are non-profits chartered with the mandate to service the underserved. The fair lending indicators measure the percentage of loans given to women, minorities and low- and moderate-income borrowers.

As a result of the report, NCRC is calling for CRA to be applied to all large credit unions. NCRC has a total of seven recommendations as a result of the report:

1. It is calling for CRA’s reach to expand and apply to credit unions.

2. NCRC is calling for changes in how the designation of underserved areas is determined. They feel it should be defined in a more meaningful way where only areas with low- and moderate income households should designated as underserved.

3. They are also calling for the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) to enhance its anti-discrimination reviews of credit unions.

4. NCRC wants to mandate the NCUA to measure a credit union’s performance.

5. NCRC want to amend the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) so that small institutions can report their lending data. Previous arguments against such reporting center on the time and cost of gathering this data. NCRC contends that technological advances make reporting much easier and less expensive.

6. NCRC feels small business lending should be disclosed by credit unions and mid-size banks.

7. Finally, NCRC feels community development credit unions (CDCU) should be supported by other credit unions and banks.

HUD Secretary Testifies Before Congress

Shaun Donovan, Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) testified before the House Financial Services Committee to explain the administration’s rationale for submitting its proposal on the Choice Neighborhoods Initiative.

In his testimony Donovan reiterated the department’s desire to broaden the number of players involved in the revitalization of neighborhoods. Donovan praised the HOPE VI program, which the Choice initiative would replace, but felt it was not as comprehensive as is needed in many neighborhoods.

Read more »

Location of Subprime Crisis Crosses State and Party Lines

A recent study released by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition (NCRC) showed that the subprime mortgage crisis is more wide-spread by state, congressional district, race and ethnicity than has been previously reported.

The report, entitled, Politics and the Subprime Mortgage Meltdown: An Examination of Disparities by Congressional District, Political Party, Caucus Affiliation and Race, was authored by Maurice Jourdain-Earl, Managing Director of ComplianceTech. Founded in 1992, ComplianceTech provides specialized lending intelligence services to financial institutions nationwide. It is known for its expertise in identifying market opportunities; formulating lending benchmarks; and implementing emerging markets, CRA and fair lending best practices.

Here is a list of some of the study’s findings:

1. Twenty-one Republicans represented congressional districts with what the reports calls “high risk” districts. These are districts with a “high number of and percentage of subprime loans".

2. Twenty-three Democrats represented similar type districts.

3. The 44 high risk districts are concentrated in nine states: Florida; California; Arizona; Maryland; Illinois; Nevada; Georgia; Missouri; and, Virginia.

4. Florida, Nevada, Maryland, and Arizona were the stats with the highest percentage of subprime loans.

5. States with highest concentration of congressional districts with a high number and percentage of black subprime loans include Maryland (5); Florida, Georgia and Illinois (three apiece); Michigan, New York and Virginia (two apiece); and. Missouri, Alabama, New Jersey, Tennessee and Wisconsin one each.

6. Of the five congressional districts with the highest number of subprime loans, four were represented by Republicans. The five in order were Reps. Alcee Hastings (D-FL), Trent Franks (R-AZ) Mario Diaz Balart (R-FL); Jerry Lewis (R-CA) and Mary Bono (R-CA).

7. People who were white received the largest percentage of subprime loans while minority borrowers and communities received the highest percentage of subprime loans.

8. Districts with the highest percentage are represented by minority Members of Congress. They include Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D-IL); Kendrick Meek (D-FL); Bobby Rush (D-IL); Edward Pastor (D-AZ); and, Lacy Clay (D-MO).

9. The two top congressional districts with high white subprime rates are the districts represented by Trent Franks (R-AZ), Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and the district formerly held by Jon Portor (R-NV).

10. Almost half of high volume lending to whites took place in Florida.

11. The districts with more than 3,000 black subprime rate loans were dominated by those represented by the black caucus; only five of 26 districts with 3,000 or more subprime loans were represented by white congressmen.

The report cited four lessons to be learned from the study:

1. Subprime lending impact some states and congressional districts unevenly.

2. In spite of the disproportionate impact that existed within their congressional districts, some Members of Congress did not support The Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) which was intended to address the issue.

3. The lending to minority groups indicates a disproportionate level of default which will occur with in those communities.

4. The housing market grew out of control due to lack of congressional oversight and the failure to regulate high cost lending.

Older Workers Affected by Recession

The recent recession has had a major impact on job opportunities for older workers, according to a report released by The Urban Institute. The report, How Did Older Worker Fare in 2009?, reviewed data from the Current Population Survey to determine how older workers fared in 2009.

The report looked at age differences in unemployment rates; labor force participation rates; employment rates; duration of unemployment spells and earnings. It compares data from 2009 with data gathered in 2007. The Current Population Survey is a monthly survey of 50,000 households which is the basis for the government's official unemployment statistics.

Among the reports findings include:

1. Unemployed workers age 55-64 and 65 and older were more than double the numbers in 2007.

2. 2009 unemployment was 7.2 percent for men between the ages of 55-64; 6 for women in the same age group; and 6.7 percent for men 65 and older; and 6.1 for women in the same age group.

3. Unemployment was more common for men than women in all ages because male dominated professions were hit hardest by the recession.

4. Unemployment was much higher for older blacks, Hispanics, and workers with limited education.

5. Older workers tended to spend more time out of work.

The report indicates that more will need to be done to address the needs of older workers as a larger share of the population enters the 55 and older age group.

Interesting Read

Housing and Community Development

Rep. Frank questions safety of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac investments
By Zachary A. Goldfarb
The Washington Post

Minority births on track to outnumber white births
By Hope Yen
The Associated Press

Politics

Sunday Take: For fed-up voters, a buffet of gaffes
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House Democrats seek to limit earmarks to show commitment to ethics
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In e-mails, lobbyists perceive ties between campaign cash, earmarks
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Thin wall separates lobbyist contributions and earmarks
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Massa resigns; Democrats' ethical lapses could threaten hold on power
By Perry Bacon Jr.
The Washington Post

Rep. Frank questions safety of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac investments
By Zachary A. Goldfarb
The Washington Post

Race, Politics and Troubles in New York
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Congressional Quarterly

Ethnicity vs. Ideology in Texas Primary
By Greg Giroux
Congressional Quarterly

Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Believe Everything You Read
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Brown's Election May End up Being a Positive for Health-Care Reform
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Cuomo and Lazio Headed for Showdown in New York Governor’s Race

Current New York State Attorney General, Andrew Cuomo, and former congressman, Rick Lazio, are headed for a showdown this fall to become Governor of New York State. The inevitable showdown materialized after current governor, David Patterson, decided not to seek election for a full term. Patterson was the sitting Lieutenant Governor when then Governor Elliot Spitzer resigned in scandal. Patterson was appointed governor after Spitzer’s resignation.

Cuomo, the former Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), is the son of former governor Mario Cuomo. He has not officially announced his candidacy; however, it has been a foregone conclusion he will run for governor.

Lazio is a former Republican congressman from Long Island who chaired the House Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity for six years. He helped write the Quality Housing and Work Responsibility Act of 1998 which sought to overhaul public housing laws.

Lazio has been discouraged by some leading Republican figures in the state to forego his pursuit of the governor’s seat and instead challenge New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D). She is seen as a vulnerable candidate even though she has the backing of her party’s state and national leadership including President Barack Obama. Early polling shows Cuomo beating Lazio or any other potential opponent handily.

Latest Projection Calls for Significant Republican Gains in November

A new analysis by The Center for Politics is predicting Republicans can make enough gains in the fall elections to potentially reclaim control of the House of Representatives.

The analysis, the second completed in two weeks by The Center, predicts Republicans will pick up 37 seats in the House leaving it three short of the number needed to take control of the lower chamber based. The Center utilizes two different methods of analysis to make this prediction. The first includes an analysis of each individual district and making estimates based in a review of polling data, past election results, a review of the opinions of highly regarded individuals in each district and other relevant data. Based on that first analysis, the Center predicted a net gain of 27 seats.

The latest analysis is considered a more accurate predictor of the congressional races. The author is Professor Alan Abramowitz of Emory University. He uses a regression analysis which includes the following four factors:

1. The president’s net approval rating according to the latest Gallup Polls.

2. Looking at the results of generic ballot questions in the Gallup Polls.

3. He includes a dummy variable which is a plus or negative factor in mid-term year elections, plus for Democrats and negative for Republicans.

4. The number of seats held by Republicans.

The first two variables are fluid during an election while the last two are “fixed” as the election progresses. Abramowitz bases his analysis on the normal tendencies of voters to react against the party controlling the White House in the middle of the president’s first term. Additionally, he said Democrats have a large number of seats to defend because they have gain approximately 50 seats in the last two election cycles.

The Center for Politics is a nonpartisan unit of the University of Virginia started by Larry Sabato which seeks to promote the value of politics and the importance of civic engagement. It strives to encourage citizens to actively participate in the political process and government; evaluate and promote the best practices in civic education for students of all age; and, educate citizens through the Center's comprehensive research, programs, and publications. Dr. Sabato is the University Professor of Politics and director of the center which was founded in 1998. He is the author of over 20 books and countless essays on politics and has taught more than 14,000 students in his career at Oxford University, Cambridge University, and the University of Virginia. He is widely regarded as one of the most accurate prognosticators of election results in the country.

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Bill White eagerly watches Perry-Hutchison battle in Texas
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Where Scott Brown Is Coming From
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Washington rancor angers bipartisan-minded Pennsylvania town
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Partisan ploy overshadows Elbridge Gerry's legacy
By Kristi Keck
CNN

Why Washington Is Tied Up in Knots
By Peter Beinart
Time Magazine

America's democracy
A study in paralysis
The Economist

Housing and Community Development

Marketing the 2010 census with a conservative-friendly face
By Juan Williams
The Washington Post

Fighting foreclosure
The Washington Post Editorial

Workers wait on promise of jobs as Obama agenda stalls on Hill
By Lori Montgomery
The Washington Post

For far too many homeowners, help still not on the way
By Robert McCartney
The Washington Post

FDIC to test principal reduction for underwater borrowers
By Renae Merle
The Washington Post

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